After the stunning win over Oregon the week before, the Cardinal entered this road game against Arizona State with nothing but roses and possibilities ahead of them. They controlled their destiny in the Pac-12 North, and it would only take six more conference wins to clinch a trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas.
When you look at things that way, you realize that it was probably a bit too early to be thinking about Pasadena during a season in which Stanford is not as dominant as they were in the Rose Bowl seasons of 2012, 2013, and 2015. This is a good team, without question, but it's an inconsistent team.
This matchup with Arizona State, which could possibly be the best team in the conference, was the third game in a treacherous three-week stretch. The Cardinal had already lost to UCLA and beaten Oregon, so when they opened with a promising drive that made it into ASU territory, it was easy to be hopeful. Two particular plays stood out -- the first was a sixteen-yard pass from Tanner McKee to tight end Ben Yurosek (more on him later) to convert a 3rd and 13, and the second was an 18-yard run from Nathaniel Peat on the very next play.
Peat had gained four yards on the first play of the drive, so at this point he had a total of 22 yards rushing after four snaps. He would add just ten more yards on five carries the rest of the way. And by that I mean the rest of the game, not the rest of the drive. Austin Jones would rush seven times for thirteen yards, meaning that after this first quarter run from Peat, the Stanford running game would amount to 12 carries for 23 yards. (Again, more on this later.)
This opening drive stalled at the Sun Devil 39 when David Shaw decided to punt on 4th and 5. (Again, more on this later.)
Tanner McKee and Arizona State's Jayden Daniels are the two best quarterbacks in the Pac-12. McKee is a more traditional pocket passer, but Daniels is a threat in and out of the pocket, and he gave the Cardinal a sampling of all his skills on the Sun Devils' opening drive. He completed two passes to earn 1st downs, but he did most of his damage with his legs, including a play that reminded us of our biggest fears concerning the Stanford defense.
On 1st and 10 from his own 49, Daniels dropped back to pass. He looked to his right, looked to his left, then climbed out of a collapsing pocket to see what he could do on his own. Stanford had six defenders rushing on the play, but when Thomas Booker realized Daniels was scrambling, he disengaged from his block, looking to make a play. Daniels wasn't bothered much as he skipped past Booker into the open field. Defensive backs Jimmy Wyrick and Kendall Williamson might have had a chance to make a play, but they ran into each other, and that was that. No Cardinal defender touched Daniels on his way to a 51-yard touchdown and a 7-0 Sun Devil lead.
It was yet another big play yielded by the Stanford defense, an unsettling pattern that frustrates fans and must be maddening for the players and coaches. It highlights the need for consistency on the defensive side of the ball. It isn't enough to hit your assignments most of the time; you have to be there every single time, and that's the battle these young defenders are fighting.
Not to be outdone by Daniels, McKee had some impressive moments on the next drive. First was a perfect pass to Yurosek for a 23-yard gain on 3rd and 10, then a strike to Elijah Higgins for 24 yards, followed by a nice pass on a wheel route to fullback Jay Symonds that netted 21 more. He capped off the drive with a six-yard jump ball to Higgins for an easy touchdown, and the game was tied at seven. McKee completed four passes for 71 yards, and it seemed we might be in for a shootout.
Keeping with that shootout theme, Daniels and the Devils moved the ball easily down the field, covering 75 yards on 7 plays in just over three minutes to take the lead right back, but McKee didn't seem bothered. Starting at his own 25, he lofted a perfect pass to Yurosek, who by now had gotten the attention of the Sun Devil defense. He had drawn double coverage, so all McKee did was drop the ball into the only place where it could be caught, and Yurosek grabbed it with one hand for a 22-yard gain.
People in Miami and South Bend and Des Moines and even a Stanford alum named Tim Trujillo might argue with this, but Stanford University is the true #TightEndU. From Zach Ertz to Dalton Schultz with several in between, the Cardinal offense has attracted and developed some of the most talented tight ends in America over the past dozen years, and Yurosek is the next in line. (Or, as his teammates have nicknamed him, The Future.) On this night he would catch 6 passes for 118 yards, announcing to the world and to linebackers up and down the conference that he is a force to reckon with.
It was another successful drive for the Cardinal offense as they reached the ASU 30, but when McKee wasn't able to connect with John Humphreys on 3rd and 6, the field goal unit came out onto the field. Ryan Sanborn, kicking in place of the injured Emmet Kenney, who had been kicking in place of the injured Joshua Karty, nailed a 47-yard field goal -- but it was taken off the board after a holding flag flew in the direction of Lukas Ungar. That created 4th and 16 from the 40, and while some in the Twitterverse were screaming to send the offense back out on the field, there was really only one choice here. The Cardinal had to punt.
Once again, the Sun Devils took advantage. There was a reverse with a flip back to Daniels that resulted in a 32-yard pass to Curtis Hodges, and then an actual reverse on the next play that went for 22 yards and a touchdown. ASU had a 21-7 lead, but the most concerning thing was that they were doing it all so easily. There was really nothing to indicate that the Stanford defense might be able to slow them down.
But that's when the game began to change a bit. In the moment, it didn't feel like there was much cause for optimism, but over the next 34 minutes of clock time, the Stanford defense would not allow Daniels and his offense to score another point. No one in the stadium would've believed it at the time, but ASU's final possessions would end like this: punt, punt, downs, missed field goal, punt.
The bad news, though, was that the offense wasn't able to take advantage. McKee would finish with a career-high 356 yards passing, but he would also throw his first three interceptions, one of which was returned 27 yards for a touchdown. The story of the game was this: the Cardinal had eleven possessions, they drove into Arizona State territory ten times, and they scored only ten points.
Fans were generally convinced that this was because of David Shaw's play calling and decision making, but with respect to this game, I'm not ready to agree with this easy criticism. First of all, as wisely noted by Troy Clardy on the TreeCast, there weren't too many manageable 4th downs. In order, the Cardinal punted on 4th and 5, 4th and 16, 4th and 13, and 4th and 10. Yes, they were all on the plus side of the field, but in none of those situations did it make sense to keep McKee out there.
As for the play calling, fans who were wondering where the running game went would do well to look at the tape. As Shaw explained after the game, the Sun Devil defense dictated what McKee and the offense were doing. By overloading the box and leaving McKee's dangerous receivers in single coverage, they were inviting the pass with the idea that McKee wouldn't be consistent enough to hurt them. They ended up being right, as McKee threw one bad interception and was victimized by two tipped balls and a few critical drops.
The obvious argument against that explanation is that once upon a time it was the Stanford offensive line that dictated things. Even when everyone knew that Toby Gerhart or Tyler Gaffney or Bryce Love was going to get the ball, it didn't matter. This current offensive line, however, isn't ready for that.
It will be interesting to watch how teams decide to defend the Cardinal going forward. McKee and Yurosek and Higgins and Humphreys and (eventually) Michael Wilson just might be too good for this strategy to gain any traction, and when teams bring in extra defensive backs and drop an extra linebacker into coverage, the balance of the Stanford offense will be different. The assertion here is that Stanford didn't lose this game because of a lack of balance, but because of a lack of completed passes. Sometimes that happens. Also, I'd refer you to the top of this piece -- Arizona State is the best team in the conference, better than UCLA, better than Oregon.
In sum, it isn't time to panic. Things will be okay.
