The historical rivalry with Cal draws on a century of history, evokes memories of miracles and mayhem, and awards an Axe to the winner each year. The annual game against USC gives the Cardinal a chance to measure itself against one of college football's marquis brands in a contest that always seems to answer questions about the direction of that year's team.
But you could easily argue that no program in the Pac-12 has been more important to the fortunes of Stanford football over the past decade than the Oregon Ducks. The two teams have split their last dozen meetings, but it was the first two games of that twelve that truly ignited this rivalry. With the Stanford program rising to national prominence, they just couldn't beat Oregon. Consecutive decisive losses by strikingly similar scores ( 52-31 and 53-30) led most to conclude that Stanford had an Oregon problem, as even the best quarterback in the history of the school wasn't able to lead his team to a victory over the Ducks.
Stanford evolved on both sides of the ball in ways that were clear attempts to narrow the gap between the two programs. Several years later, during a conversation about Chip Kelly's arrival at UCLA, I asked David Shaw if he thought the former Oregon coach had been indirectly responsible for Stanford's improvement and eventual series of conference championships. He paused just a second for emphasis and then said, "One hundred percent."
So there will always be something different in the air when these two teams meet, and one lingering subplot that could come to the fore this afternoon is the history that these two teams have of knocking each other out of the national championship picture. Oregon enters this game 4-0 and ranked third in the country with a statement win in Columbus, Ohio, on their playoff résumé. With the Pac-12 trending down overall, it seems likely that they'll cruise through the rest of their schedule, sweat through a matchup with the suddenly resurgent Oregon State Beavers, dominate whichever team emerges from the South, and head into the college football playoffs.
All of that seems likely, but the Cardinal could have something to say about that today. Yes, Oregon is undefeated, but not all of those wins have been as impressive as the one against Ohio State. It won't be a terrible surprise if they stumble somewhere along the way, and today is their first opportunity to trip.
Yes, Stanford is coming off of a disappointing loss to UCLA, but that was a game marred by errors. If the Cardinal can clean some of those things up and produce their best game, we could see an upset.
I reached out to Adam Chimeo from Addicted to Quack to get his thoughts on the game and some insight into what's been going on with the Ducks. (You can also read my answers to his questions about the Cardinal over at their site; it seems I touched a nerve by mentioning Devon Carrington's track down of Marcus Mariota in 2012. But Adam did ask the question...)
Anyway, here's Adam...
GMC:
Finish this statement for me and explain your answer: Oregon might make the College Football Playoffs because…
ATQ:
Oregon might make the College Football Playoffs because this is a season with only one clear playoff contender: the winner of the SEC. Even if we are cursed with two SEC teams in the playoff, those other two spots are still up in the air for any conference champion to catch. It’s more than likely that the winner of the Big Ten makes it, and if that happens to be Ohio State then that only helps Oregon’s chances. As of right now, the Ducks have a better case than whoever comes out of the BIG 12 or ACC thanks to that win in the horseshoe. However, that’s assuming the Ducks win the PAC-12 and drop no more than one game during conference play, which is a hard task to pull off but not impossible as they are favored in all of their remaining contests.
GMC:
Finish this statement for me and explain your answer: Oregon might not win the Pac-12 North because…
ATQ:
Oregon might not win the Pac-12 North because they are perilously thin at several key defensive positions, especially inside linebacker. Injuries to Dru Mathis, Justin Flowe, Adrian Jackson, Mase Funa, Bradyn Swinson and most notably Kayvon Thibodeaux have left this much vaunted Duck front seven more vulnerable to the run. A few more injuries on this side of the field could prove too much for the Oregon offense to compensate for, perhaps leaving room for another PAC-12 North team (Oregon State?) to sneak in with a win over the Ducks.
GMC:
If we disregard the blip at the end of the Mark Helfrich years, Oregon football has been remarkably consistent over the past decade. How is the feel of the program different under Mario Cristobal as compared to the Chip Kelly era?
ATQ:
The 2021 team is built around dominating offensive and defensive lines. Unlike the Kelly era, this team has brought in elite talent for the lines and relies on over-performing veterans for the skill positions. It’s an offense that would prefer to take the easy, short gain than the explosive play, and uses high 4-star/5-star talent on defense to force takeaways by making the opposing team march down the field. Funny enough, it’s a lot closer to the Stanford teams that were pushing around the Ducks during the Kelly era than the high-flying offense that the team became associated with.
GMC:
This team’s offense is incredibly balanced in terms of production, but quarterback Anthony Brown appears to be the focal point. What are his strengths and weaknesses?
ATQ:
His biggest strength is that he’s been playing college football since 2016. In Oregon’s victory over Ohio State, Brown was as cool as one could be in the pocket despite the 90,000-plus fans in the stands. Outside of a single fumble against Fresno State in week one, Brown has led this team by avoiding costly mistakes. As far as weaknesses go, his lack of success on the deep ball is a bit concerning. We know he can hit it, evident by his time at Boston College, but he hasn’t yet been able to translate that to his game at Oregon.
GMC:
Tell me a little bit about the Oregon running game and the two backs who are splitting the load. How important is Brown to the running attack?
ATQ:
The Oregon running game is led by juniors CJ Verdell and Travis Dye. Verdell’s strength is hitting the hole in the offensive line fast and hard, while Dye is best in the open field and in the passing game. The combination of these two has proven successful over the years, and this season both of these running backs look much improved in picking up steady yards, which makes Brown as a runner even more lethal. Unlike when Justin Herbert was at the UO, Cristobal is very in favor of using Brown as a runner, especially against undersized defenders. Moorhead’s offense is reliant on a mobile QB, but the Ducks also have the o-line and running backs to beat many teams with pure force.
GMC:
After four games, the leading receiver has only ten receptions, so can you tell me how this unit has been so successful as a group?
ATQ:
Brown Jr. has really spread the ball around in all of his games this season. Oregon is also very deep at receiver this year with veteran players like Johnny Johnson III, Jaylon Redd, Mycah Pittman, and Devon Williams splitting time with promising younger passcatchers Kris Hutson, Troy Franklin, and Dont’e Thornton. To his credit, Brown has gone with the open receiver as opposed to a go-to receiver, and that has resulted in a lot of Ducks catching only a handful of passes.
GMC:
We all know that Kayvon Thibodeaux is a game wrecker who’s headed to the NFL, but what do you appreciate most about him as you watch him on a weekly basis?
ATQ:
Lately, I’ve really enjoyed his energy from the sidelines, as you can tell he is still very supportive of his teammates while he’s been rehabbing from his week one left ankle sprain. When he’s at 100 percent, I’ve been amazed with his ability to flatten around defenders and get to the quarterback with an explosive burst of speed on his first step. No wonder the NFL scouts like him so much; he’s going to send a lot of millionaire quarterbacks to the sidelines in the near future due to his unique combination of speed and strength.
GMC:
The Cardinal had trouble last week with UCLA’s various blitz packages. How do you expect the Oregon defense to attack them?
ATQ:
If it’s anything like we’ve seen so far, the Duck defense will sit back and attack on crucial plays. If Thibodeaux is a full-go, which reports out of practice indicate he is, then you can expect a lot of rushes from the outside as he tries to shorten McKee’s time in the pocket. 5-star linebacker Noah Sewell has also had a lot of success plowing by centers to get to the QB, and DeRuyter’s system is one that feasts on hurried passes due to an effective passrush.
GMC:
Is there any way Oregon loses this game? Give me your score prediction and an explanation for how we get there.
ATQ:
Of course there is a way; it’s the Oregon-Stanford game! If Stanford comes right out of the gate and starts throwing to their larger receivers and connecting, then we could be in for a much closer game than the experts predicted. The Ducks have played most of their opponents close until the end, so if Shaw can pull off a couple of key plays in big moments then it’s absolutely possible that Stanford wins this thing.
That being said, I believe that Oregon wins 42 to 27. The Ducks come out strong with back-to-back scores thanks to powerful runs from CJ Verdell, but the Cardinal fights back to tie it at the half with some long touchdown drives led by McKee. Oregon then scores 28 unanswered points in the second half by forcing two turnovers and dominating on the lines, then Stanford adds a touchdown and two field goals in garbage time.
… or at least I hope that’s how it goes.
