With the Cardinal sitting at 3-4 coming out of a much needed bye week, it seems like as good a time as any to look at the season through a broader lens. Where is this team, and where is this program?
The success that David Shaw enjoyed in the early years of his tenure -- three conference championships in five years, and a couple of teams that were among the best in the country -- has led to something that would've been unimaginable twenty years ago. There is now a vocal part of the fanbase -- perhaps the most vocal part of the fanbase -- that is unsatisfied with anything less than what we saw from the Cardinal in the first half of the last decade.
I'm not here to say that Stanford Football should not always aspire to those heights, but my memories of the Dark Times, as well as a perspective that includes the wider landscape of college football beyond the Pac-12, allow me to remain calm while others around me are losing their heads. It's tempting to flip channels while sitting on the couch and bemoan the fact that every other program always seems to be performing at an elite level, but that simply isn't the case. Michigan fans, for example, might be thrilled with their team's 7-0 start, but it wasn't long ago that Jim Harbaugh's photo hung in every post office in Ann Arbor. The Clemson Tigers are clearly one of the sport's elite programs, but this morning they're lucky to be 4-3.
This 3-4 Stanford team could be 4-3 if they'd hung on against Washington State or even 5-2 if they'd also kept things together against UCLA, but that line of thinking ignores the improbability, almost impossibility, of the Oregon win. The Cardinal is a middle of the pack Pac-12 team, and like most average teams, the moments when they've teased us with brilliance have been counterbalanced with frustrating sequences of ineptitude. The absolute value of all that has been a season in which the team has never had more than a one-game separation from the .500 mark in one direction or the other.
We've seen the Cardinal show resilience as they've followed some difficult losses with impressive wins, beating USC on the road after the opening week loss to Kansas State, and stunning Oregon after losing to UCLA. If that pattern is to continue, Stanford will have to show more resilience when they face off against the Washington Huskies on Saturday night at the Farm.
Washington entered the season ranked in the top 25, but like Stanford, the Huskies carry a disappointing 3-4 record. When you look closer at their schedule, however, there are some differences. While the Cardinal can claim that win over third-ranked Oregon and another solid road win over #14 USC, the Huskies have nothing like that on their résumé. Their three wins include a romp over Arkansas State, the worst team in the Sunbelt Conference, and one-score wins over Cal and Arizona, the cellar dwellers in the Pac-12 North and South, respectively. Most damning, however, is the home loss to lower-division Montana in the season opener.
This has been a season to forget for the Huskies (and also another reminder that solid programs sometimes slip). They appear to be the right team at the right time for the Cardinal, and I expect Stanford to get the win and even the ledger at 4-4. Washington's rush defense has been just as porous as the Cardinal's, so this might be the game when we finally see a balanced offensive attack from Stanford. If Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat are successful and force the Washington defense to account for them, Tanner McKee should also have a big day. This feels like a 31-21 win for the Cardinal.
To take a look at things from the Husky perspective, I connected with John Sayler from the UW Dawg Pound to answer some questions about the current state of Washington football. (You can also check out my answers to his questions about the Cardinal over at their site.) Anyway, read on...
GMC:
With the Huskies sitting at 3-4 overall and 2-2 in conference, how have these first seven games compared to the pre-season expectations for the team?
John Sayler:
The Huskies started the season as a top 25 team with quite a bit of buzz and optimism. It didn’t make a ton of sense to me, since this was basically the same team as last year, and the 2020 UW football team was hard to watch. But, they managed a 3-1 record in the abbreviated season, and since so many players were coming back, someone, somewhere started a rumor that this was a really good football team. I even found myself buying into that hype, but always grounded myself with the evidence I had seen in 2020.
So, that’s me. A semi-rational fan. There are a few like me, but most think this team should be contending for the Pac-12 title, and nothing else is acceptable. This year has featured the “worst loss in program history” to Montana in the opener. And now, I am hearing that the win over Arizona is “the worst win in program history.” Love me some hyperbole served with a side order of recency bias.
GMC:
Which areas of the team have exceeded expectations, and which have disappointed?
Sayler:
The rushing offense is the biggest disappointment to me. This is a veteran offensive line, and an experienced group of running backs. Still, the running game has had a hard time getting going consistently. When the run game has clicked, the offense looks really good. But this happens for only parts of games, then totally vanishes. The offensive line play in general hasn’t been great, including recognizing blitzers, and general communication issues.
The wide receiver play has been a bright spot. UW was missing its top 3 (and 4 of its top 5) WRs for the Montana game, then slowly healed until only one of the five was still out with injury by the time conference play came around.
The top three receivers (Terrell Bynum, Jalen McMillan, and Rome Odunze) are all dangerous playmakers, and Dylan Morris has great confidence and timing with these guys. This Husky offense can be really explosive when Morris gets protection and can get in rhythm with these three outstanding targets. Every week I vacillate over which one is the best of the three, but Bynum has been the most consistent.
GMC:
Tell me about Dylan Morris. His numbers suggest that this has been a challenging season, but what else can you tell me about him? How long will he be able to hold off Sam Huard?
Sayler:
Dylan Morris is about as hot and cold as it gets at the QB position. If the pattern continues, you will get to see both on Saturday night. Last week vs Arizona, UW switched to a no-huddle offense, where Morris would stand at the line of scrimmage and look to the sideline for the play. I consider this a bit of an indictment on his pre snap recognition, and his ability to read the defense. All season he has been guilty of not seeing adjustments made by the defense either pre-snap or right at the snap. It seems that the coaches want to help him in that area.
Morris puts points on the scoreboard. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns, and they have pretty much all been beauties, throwing receivers open. But he also has eight interceptions, and most of those have been garbage plays by him. In addition, he needs to get better at 3rd down and manageable situations to keep more drives alive.
I’m really hoping Huard can win the job next season. Morris frustrates me, and a lot of Husky fans.
GMC:
Aside from Morris, what player on offense do you think will have the biggest impact on the game for the Huskies?
Sayler:
Cade Otton (#87) is an outstanding tight end, and he has been somewhat quiet lately. The trio of UW receivers have put such good performances on tape, I wonder if Otton could fly under the radar in this one. If Otton is working the middle of the field and punishing tacklers along the way, things will open things up outside for the wideouts.
It will be a good sign for Washington if Otton can make Stanford pay for over committing to the run, or playing some soft cover 2 out of respect for UW’s deep threats.
GMC:
Stanford’s offensive line has been incredibly inconsistent, particularly against strong front sevens. What does that group look like for the Huskies, and how do you expect them to do against Stanford?
Sayler:
It’s not a great front seven for Washington, so I’m expecting David Shaw to line up and attack it. Stanford hasn’t run the football particularly well this season, but they have to know that the Husky defensive front is not as strong as in past years, and there are issues with depth at linebacker. Also, this is probably the worst tackling safety group UW has had in a long time, and that impacts the perceived effectiveness of the front 7 in the running game.
This group is really young, and I keep hoping they will get better. There have been some signs of improvement, but it wasn’t displayed last week as Arizona rolled up 200+ on the ground.
GMC:L
Which defensive player has the best chance to impact the game on Saturday?
Sayler:
Zion Tupuola-Fetui injured his Achilles during spring practice, and although his recovery was being touted as ahead of schedule, and there being tons of talk about him coming back sooner than expected, I never thought we would see him on the field this year, especially by midseason. He is an explosive edge rusher, and has a knack for getting the QB on the ground and the football out with a chop. ZTF, as he is known, is the Huskies only dynamic pass rusher, but his limitations prevent him from being an every down player. Just go back and watch the UW/Stanford game from a year ago, and you will see #58 for Washington getting picked on regularly in the run game
GMC:
What has to happen for Washington to win this game?
Sayler:
The Huskies will need to have success running the football, and Morris will need to do what he did in both of the Huskies conference wins: Avoid interceptions. Defensively, the tackling has to be better, and UW needs to contain the big play in the passing game.
GMC:
What’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best explanation of how we get there.
Sayler:
I’m not picking the Huskies to win. I can’t. They have struggled to stop Stanford’s offense the past two seasons, and I just see the veteran Shaw outcoaching and scheming the rookie Jimmy Lake in this one. Someone (could be either team) will take command early, then the other team will fight back. In the end though, the Cardinal get it done 33-27.
