When Stanford football travels north to Corvallis to play Oregon State, the games always seem to be close and dramatic, so I'm always surprised when I notice the long winning streak the Cardinal owns against the Beavers. It's grown to eleven games at this point, and Oregon State remains the only conference team that hasn't beaten David Shaw in his career as Stanford's head coach.
If those streaks are to continue, a lot of the current trends surrounding Stanford football are going to have to change. Oregon State's success this year has been built around its strong running game. They lead the Pac-12 in rushing with 229.9 yards per game (9th in the nation), and bruising tailback B.J. Baylor is averaging 6.1 yards per carry against conference opponents. Only three weeks ago, facing the same Utah defense that just erased the Stanford running game, Baylor rumbled for 152 yards on just 19 carries. How important is their reliance on the running game? Over their last seven games, when the Beavers throw the ball fewer than twenty times, they're undefeated; when they throw for more than twenty, they haven't won.
If all of this seems worrisome to Cardinal fans, there's good reason for that. Engaging in nostalgia can be depressing and unproductive, but in this case I think it explains much of the angst currently permeating every real life and Twitter conversation I'm having about Stanford football this fall.
In the five-year stretch from 2010-2014, Stanford was either first or second in the conference in total defense as measured by average yards allowed per game, and they led the league in rushing defense in each of the last four years of that period. (They were second in 2010.) Over the course of those five years, the Cardinal's average average was 100.84 yards rushing allowed per game, and from 2011 to 2013 the Stanford rushing defense ranked in the top five in the nation.
Stanford fans longing for that type of defensive dominance have seen nothing remotely similar in 2021. Teams once had to work all game long to get to the century mark in rushing yardage, but in last Friday night's game the Utah Utes tripled that number before halftime, rushing for a preposterous 336 yards in the first half.
While that performance was the clear low water mark for the Stanford defense, there haven't been too many bright spots for the Cardinal this season in terms of their efforts at stopping an opposing running game.
They are currently yielding 232.1 yards per game on the ground. Not only is this dead last in the conference, it's almost 40 yards below eleventh-place Washington, and it ranks 127th out of 130 FBS teams. Stanford football might claim to enter each season with designs on a conference championship, but teams in that neighborhood struggle to win games, let alone championships, so the Cardinal's current 3-6 record can't really be much of a surprise given these dark defensive statistics.
But what does this mean for Saturday's matchup with the Beavers? Can a team with one of the the worst rushing defenses in the nation have any hope at slowing down the best rushing offense in the conference? To paraphrase the old Michael Jordan proverb, they can't stop the Beavers, they can only hope to contain them. One of the keys to the game will be containing the Oregon State rushing attack. If they can keep them somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 yards, that might force quarterback Chance Nolan to be more involved in the offense, and that would be a good sign for the Cardinal.
Unfortunately, that might not even be the biggest variable contributing to the Cardinal's outlook for Saturday. With Tanner McKee on the sidelines last weekend, we got another reminder of the stunning lack of depth in the Stanford quarterback room. Jack West is probably a nice guy and a hard worker, but he was hopelessly overmatched against the swarming Utah defense. West is not on the depth chart released this week. (This just makes the early season indecision about the starting quarterback all the more perplexing.) Isaiah Sanders also played against Utah, seeing the most extensive action of his Stanford career, but his skillset limited an already limited offense.
With all of this in mind, David Shaw casually announced that if McKee is not ready to go on Saturday (he suggested McKee was somewhere between doubtful and questionable), Ari Patu would get the start. How significant is this? The last time a true freshman started at quarterback for Stanford it was John Paye in 1983, and even when highly recruited quarterbacks have arrived in Palo Alto without established quarterbacks ahead of them on the depth chart, Shaw has been quick to remind people that true freshmen simply aren't ready to direct the Stanford offense.
So what's changed now? According to Shaw, the playbook hasn't. He made that clear during his weekly press conference -- "We're going to run our offense." Patu can't possibly have a full grasp of all the intricacies of that offense, and as a recruit he wasn't as highly regarded as some other Stanford quarterbacks who spent their first years on the Farm walking the sidelines with clipboards in their hands, but a variety of factors have converged to put Patu on the field.
First, there's the benefit of the NCAA's relatively new redshirt rule which allows players to enter as many as four games in a season without losing a year of eligibility. Second, there's the reality of the quarterback situation, as described above. Patu's college experience might be limited to a single series in the closing minutes of that Friday Night Massacre, but his first pass (an incompletion to Bryce Farrell) looked better than anything Jack West threw all night.
Finally, it's possible that Shaw recognizes the stark reality that faces the 2021 Stanford Cardinal. He is highly competitive and his players are talented and determined. Even though I caught a fair amount of Twitter heat for mentioning this on Friday night, it was impressive to see that the team clearly did not give up. After playing through quite possibly the worst half of Stanford football in fifteen years, it would have been easy for the team to go through the motions in the second half, but they still played hard. This speaks to the character of the players, something that has never been in question.
Even given all this, the truth is that there are only three games left on the schedule for the Cardinal. Barring something surprising on Saturday in Corvallis and something miraculous in two weeks against Notre Dame, Stanford won't get the requisite six wins necessary for a bowl bid. Perhaps Shaw understands that even with all the talk about urgency and the need to win every week, there's actually no urgency at all because the likelihood of a three-game winning streak is so remote. Perhaps he understands that if starting McKee isn't possible, we might as well get a look at Ari Patu.
So what can we expect to see? Patu played at Folsom High School, just a few hours northeast of Stanford, but he wasn't highly recruited. He was a three-star prospect with only a handful of Pac-12 offers and little national interest. The lack of interest was likely a function of Patu's lack of playing time. He didn't play varsity football until his junior season, and he wasn't the full-time starter, playing in only eight games and throwing just 102 passes. Some recruiting observers criticized the Cardinal for selecting Patu over other perceived West Coast options (most notably Miller Moss, who ended up at USC without receiving a Stanford offer), but the Stanford staff chose Patu's potential over what some other quarterbacks had already put on film. The expectation was that Patu's senior season would elevate his profile, but the pandemic put an end to that. The state of California pushed high school football to the spring, so when Patu graduated early to enroll as one of the first two early enrollees in Stanford history, his senior season was lost.
Even so, there were some who believed Stanford was getting a diamond in the rough. Here's what noted West Coast recruiting expert Greg Biggins had to see when he evaluated Patu soon after he signed with the Cardinal last spring:
He’s a mobile, dual-threat type quarterback with a smooth, easy delivery. He has plus arm strength and will make a big jump in this area as he fills out his frame. He’s very comfortable throwing on the run, whether it be rolling left or right and he can deliver the football from different arm angles. He’s not stiff or robotic like some young quarterbacks who have been coached up their whole life and why we think he makes a big jump once he hits college. He’s very fluid in how he throws the football and has the athleticism to escape and extend plays.
If Patu does indeed get the start on Saturday, I'll be looking forward to seeing some of that athleticism and what that might mean for the Stanford offense. It will be a nice glimpse into the future, but I don't think it will be enough to earn a win for the Cardinal. I expect that the Oregon State rushing attack will simply be too much for Stanford to overcome, and the decision between McKee and Patu will likely only affect the eventual margin of defeat. It's difficult to predict a score when you don't know who will be starting at quarterback, but since I'm fairly certain it will be the true freshman, I'm expecting a big win for the Beavers. Oregon State 27, Stanford 10.
For a look from the other side of the beaver dam, I reached out to my old blogging friend angry from angrybeavs.com. (You can check out my answers to his questions about the Cardinal over at his site.) Read on...
GMC:
Stanford has some mysterious results on their ledger, but so does Oregon State. How did the Beavers beat Utah but lose to Colorado?
angry:
As you know, Hank, there’s no transitive property in football, and given that string theory says every possible outcome will manifest itself, it’s no mystery. But more seriously, it’s simply a matter of mental weakness and Jonathan Smith making errors. The Beavs think they can show up against weak teams and they will bow down. They have to mature in that regard. Smith has no understanding of 4th down risk management and has cost the Beavs a few games now due to poor understanding of probabilities. In the Colorado game, this was once again not understanding when to punt the ball on 4th down versus going for it, and when to go for it (i.e. go for the win in OT).
GMC:
Head coach Jonathan Smith seems to have turned the program around, but I’ve been hearing some complaints from the fan base. What are your thoughts?
angry:
Ah, touched on this above, but yes, that’s accurate. He has turned the program around in terms of recruiting legit 3-star talent. Riley and Andersen recruited 3-star talent, but it was the guys no other program wanted. We’re winning recruiting battles for the legit 3-star and some 4-star talent now. So that’s great. But as I wrote, Smith has zero understanding of 4th down management. He literally does the opposite of what should be done on almost every critical 4th down. And at this point, he seems to be over-compensating for those errors earlier in games resulting in even worse decisions later in games.
GMC:
Chance Nolan has some nice statistics. What have you seen from him? What are his strengths and weaknesses?
angry:
He’s a great backup and a mediocre starter. When the Beavs throw under 15 times per game I think they are undefeated, and when it’s over that number I believe they’ve lost every game.
GMC:
What type of back is B.J. Baylor? And why have his numbers dipped the last couple of games?
angry:
He’s a straight forward runner without much cutting ability. Very hard to bring down and is always fighting for yards after contact. He used to be shifty, but as he’s bulked up that’s less so and he’s more a bruiser now. He doesn’t have breakaway speed, but he has speed good enough to rip off those mid-tier long runs like 40 to 50 yards. His numbers have dipped mostly because OSU has gotten pass happy. Offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren seems to be the only person who hasn’t gotten the memo that we’re a very good run-first team.
GMC:
Who else should we watch for on the Oregon State offense?
angry:
The tight ends have been more involved lately. I’d look for Luke Musgrave and Q to do some damage. Trey Lowe is fast and could be a backfield problem for Stanford as a change of pace back and on screens. A sleeper is wide receiver Anthony Gould who has positive plays every time he touches the ball. He is super fast, and I can see him getting by Stanford the secondary if they’re not prepared for him.
GMC:
How do you expect Sunday’s coaching change to impact the Beavers defense this weekend? How do you expect them to attack the Stanford offense? Who are the stars?
angry:
At this point I’m bearish on Smith getting the 3rd and 4th down calls correct, so if I had to pick how coaching will affect the game, I’d guess Smith continues to blow games for us. The trend is your friend. Until I have reason to believe otherwise, I’m going to believe what is actually happening. I’m not sure the Beavs have “stars.” Some nice players who can break this game open are wide receivers Harrison and Lindsey, running backs Baylor and Lowe, and Anthony Gould…these players all have unique skill sets that stand out as game-changing abilities.
GMC:
Are there any injury concerns that might impact Oregon State on either side of the ball?
angry:
Honestly I have not kept up with the depth chart for this game. But our safety Alton Julian comes to mind immediately. The Beavs have been downhill since his injury.
GMC:
Is there any possible way that Oregon State loses this game? If so, how?
angry:
Oh yes. Most Beav fans are expecting a loss. I think it will be a very close game. They lose if they get pass happy again and if Jonathan Smith continues to make coaching errors. I’d like to see Nolan throw no more than 20 passes unless the game flow absolutely dictates otherwise, but stick with the run and short passing game as long as possible.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
angry:
I’m going 27-24, Beavs. I think the coaches get back to basics and stick with the run longer than usual, which keeps the score down, and keeps the Beavs’ players playing to their strengths. If not, fans are going to question Jonathan Smith even more.
