If you've been reading this series, and if you've been paying attention to Stanford Football for the past decade, you know that nothing I wrote as I previewed the running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks really matters. Not a word.
You could make a strong argument that the offensive line of any football team is the most significant variable in determining overall success, and it's no different for this year's Stanford squad. In fact, given the identity and brand defined by the program ten years ago in comparison to the product on the field recently, the performance of this year's offensive line will do more than just determine how long Tanner McKee has to throw or how wide the holes are for E.J. Smith. This group will decide whether or not we still talk about Intellectual Brutality. They will determine the future viability of the Tunnel Workers Union. It's that serious.
Once upon a time we knew one thing about Stanford football. They were going to run the ball, and by the time a game was over, opposing defensive linemen would be panting and linebackers would be tentative. Teams knew what was coming, and they knew they couldn't stop it. The original Tunnel Workers didn't just overpower their opponents, they demoralized them. Coaches around the league whispered about the Stanford Hangover, acknowledging that their front sevens often couldn't recover in time to be effective the week after playing the Cardinal. According to legend, a USC defensive linemen once even begged a Stanford lineman to stop running power.
Younger fans won't remember, but the previous rise of Stanford Football under Denny Green was also fueled by the strength of offensive linemen. Back in the early 1990s before 300-pound linemen grew on trees, Cardinal running backs Tommy Vardell and Glyn Milburn ran behind one of the biggest lines in football, boasting an average weight exceeded by only one team, a team which played in the NFL.
So it was no surprise when Harbaugh and Shaw built an offense around a series of dominant offensive lines. While the rest of the football world was prioritizing speed and quickness and sitting idly by as fullbacks and tight ends found themselves on endangered species lists, Stanford Football embraced the past. They were big, they were bold, they were beautiful. And even though they were the only ones playing this style of football -- perhaps precisely because they were the only ones playing this style of football -- the offensive system was wildly successful, and that success led to an Identity.
When a team has an Identity with a capital I, there's good and bad. First, it helps with recruiting. For example, Stanford might not get the top tight end in the class every year (though often they do), but I guarantee that the top tight end always considers Stanford. Offensive linemen are also aware of this Identity, and they've loved the idea of coming to a place with a brand built around them.
The problem, though, is that sometimes the Identity isn't completely accurate. David Shaw will tell anyone that listens that he doesn't want a running offense, he wants a balanced offense. Yes, he acknowledges, when Stanford is playing its best football, the Cardinal has a three score lead in the second half, and we're watching one clock-burning drive after another with nary a pass. We remember Toby Gerhart pounding his way through weary defenses, but we forget the passing attack that opened those leads in the first place. In fact, that 2009 season gave us the clearest example of this. Gerhart had had a Heisman-worthy season, so as Stanford headed to the Sun Bowl it was assumed that they would be fine without their injured young quarterback, sophomore Andrew Luck. Gerhart ran for 135 yards that day, but without Luck there was no balance to the offensive attack, and Stanford lost to Oklahoma.
So it's much more accurate to say that the Stanford offense has been built around dominant offensive lines that make all things possible -- running and passing. From 2009 to 2017, the offensive line featured twelve All-Pac-12 selections, three Morris Trophy winners, three All-Americas, and an Outland Trophy winner while making it possible for five different Heisman snubs. Stanford's record during that span was 93-28 and the team played in four Rose Bowls, making that the best nine-year stretch in school history.
But then everything changed.
The chart above shows the precipitous decline of the Stanford running game, and the last four years are concerning. If we were to go back to 2015 and tell David Shaw that one day his team would average less than a hundred yards rushing, I'm not sure he would've believed it. But that's exactly what happened last season when Stanford was the worst rushing team in the conference by a substantial margin.
That decline is not because of the running backs (though the team may have lost the running backs due to the decline). Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat were healthy and primed for an excellent season in 2021, but the offensive line was never able to achieve any level of consistency. The running game was never a threat.
Last month Shaw explained that no program in America was impacted by the pandemic as much as Stanford was. We know that Santa Clara County's rigid restrictions forced the team to play exclusively on the road for the tail end of the 2020 season, but that was just a problem of geography and logistics. The more significant impact was the loss of off-season programs in the summers of 2020 and 2021, and no part of the team was affected by this more than the offensive line.
While much of the narrative surrounding this group has been negative, the 2022 season offers an opportunity for the story to change. Shaw described this group as stronger and healthier than it's been in years, and there's also the added benefit of experience. For the first time in several years, the Cardinal will likely feature an offensive line comprised exclusively of juniors and seniors, and there will be plenty of depth for the larger packages they often employ.
We can be sure that we'll see senior Walter Rouse and junior Myles Hinton at left and right tackles. Rouse impressed when he was forced into action as a true freshman in 2019, but his career has been up and down since then. Hinton was one of the top tackles in the 2020 recruiting class, but he struggled at times at right tackle last season. The hope is that last season's sophomore struggles will translate into junior year success.
And there's more good news. Senior Drake Nugent will be back at center after starting all twelve games there last season, senior Barrett Miller will no doubt continue at left guard, and either Branson Bragg or Jake Hornibrook, both seniors, will be at right guard. If everything goes as planned, the Cardinal will probably open the season with an offensive line that boasts a total of 86 career starts from tackle to tackle, along with significant experience behind them.
It's my hunch that considering the pedigree and experience of these players combined with the benefits of their first normal off-season conditioning program, we will see an offensive line that performs more like those lines from the past. And if fans are concerned about the downward trend of the Stanford offensive line, you can bet these men have been thinking about nothing else. On September 3rd the firm of Rouse, Miller, Nugent, Bragg, and Hinton will step onto the turf at Stanford Stadium with everything to prove. I can't wait to watch.
