Over the past twelve years of Stanford football, three of the programs biggest -- and most surprising -- wins have come at the expense of the Oregon Ducks. There was the epic game in 2012 when freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan led the Cardinal to an improbable overtime win in Autzen Stadium, the miracle comeback in 2018, and the lone highlight of last season, a 31-24 overtime win on the Farm.
On the other side of the coin, the Ducks have handed the Cardinal two of the more painful losses in program history. First a crushing 53-30 home loss in Andrew Luck's senior season of 2011, and then a shocking 38-36 upset in 2015, losses that left arguably the two best Stanford teams of all time on the outside of the national championship picture.
These two schools have produced plenty of dramatic games, they've crushed each other's championship dreams more than once, and for most of the past decade they were the two best teams in the conference, with one or the other usually representing the Pac-12 North in the conference championship game.
Entering into Saturday's game, however, things are... different.
Anyone reading this article knows all about Stanford's struggles over the past fifteen games -- four wins and eleven losses -- and also about the last ten games, a 1-9 stretch with the only win coming in this year's season opener against Colgate. This is a program that hasn't beaten an FBS team since last October 2nd, almost a full calendar year, when they beat these very same Oregon Ducks.
Things were supposed to be different for the Cardinal this year, but once again we're talking about injuries -- starting running back E.J. Smith missed last week's game at Washington and will now miss the rest of the season, and the offense played most of the first half without both starting tackles. Given the team's talent and experience levels, they enter each game needing to play mistake-free football in order to win, but instead the offense has been turning the ball over at a record pace and the defense has recorded but a single interception, none in the two losses. The turnover margin is a staggering -10, the offensive line has allowed 13 sacks, and opposing quarterbacks have been roughly as comfortable as your grandmother sitting on the veranda sipping a glass of iced tea.
Where are the Colorado Buffalos when you need them? Sadly, the Buffs are not on the schedule this year, and Arizona State won't show up for a few weeks, so the Cardinal finds itself in a tough stretch of one of the tougher schedules in the nation. When the season is over, there's no doubt that the teams in this current three-game run (USC, Washington, and Oregon) will sit in some order along with Utah as the top four in the conference -- unless Stanford can pull off the upset this weekend.
The Ducks enter the game feeling much better than they must have a month ago. After an emphatic 49-3 opening week loss to Georgia, Oregon returned home and got better immediately with three straight wins -- 70-14 over overmatched Eastern Washington, 41-20 over #12 BYU, and 44-41 in a miraculous comeback over Washington State, though it would probably be more accurate to say that the Cougars Coug'd it last weekend.
In a sign of the changing nature of college football -- and, some might say, Exhibit C in the case against Stanford's return to the upper echelon of the sport -- this will be the third straight game in which the Stanford defense will face a school with a new quarterback fresh from the transfer portal. First there was USC's Caleb Williams, next was Washington's Michael Penix, Jr., and on Saturday they'll see Bo Nix, late of the Auburn Tigers.
With Nix at the helm, the Oregon offense looks a bit different. Stretching back to when Chip Kelly was Winning the Day, Oregon teams have been powered by high-octane running games, but a third of the way into this season the Ducks' leading rusher, Bucky Irving, has only 265 yards. Nix, meanwhile, threw for 428 yards last week. While that might be cause for concern for Stanford fans, there's something else that strikes fear into my Cardinal heart -- eighteen different Ducks have already caught passes this season. For comparison's sake, Stanford has seventeen different players with receptions -- in the last two seasons combined.
Considering that Caleb Williams and Michael Penix, Jr., threw for 650 yards total against the Stanford defense, Bo Nix will be the player to watch on Saturday. One reason he's had so much success in the early part of the season is that he's yet to be sacked. Quarterback pressure has not been a strength of the Stanford defense thus far in 2022, but that will certainly have to change for there to be a chance of another upset in Autzen.
I still believe in the Stanford offense, and I draw comfort from last week's Oregon-Wazzou boxscore. Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward had the best game of his young career, completing 37 of 48 passes for 375 yards. If Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee can do something similar, and -- say it with me -- if he can avoid turnovers, things could be interesting. But even if it is interesting, and even if Stanford takes a few steps in the right direction, the Cardinal still might come up short. This feels like a likely loss -- Oregon 41, Stanford 27.
This is the part where I usually turn the piece over to someone I've never met outside of an email or a Twitter exchange, but that's not the case this week. Instead I've got someone that I've known since he was twelve years old and sitting in my English class. He doesn't know this, but when I spoke to him during his senior year of high school a few years ago and he told me he was thinking about studying sports journalism at either Arizona State or Oregon, my very first thought was that I'd one day ask him to help out with one of my preview articles, and that day is today. I couldn't be more proud to introduce Graham Metzker of Ducks Digest (and sixth period). Read on!
Go Mighty Card:
Things are looking good for the Ducks now that they’ve run off three straight wins to get to 3-1. What’s changed since the blowout loss to Oregon?
Graham Metzker:
Well, for starters, the competition has changed. Through four weeks of college football, the reigning champion Georgia Bulldogs seem to be the undisputed top dogs. A brand new coaching staff and starting quarterback going against Georgia in Atlanta was always a bad mix.
Since then, Bo Nix has gotten comfortable in the offense, and Offensive Coordinator Kenny Dillingham has identified the best weapons for Nix to target. And the defensive front has been nothing short of dominant. The Ducks haven’t given up more than 100 rushing yards since playing Georgia.
In short, everything is easier when you aren’t playing the Dawgs.
GMC:
How is Bo Nix fitting in with the Oregon offense? For Pac-12 fans who might not have watched him at Auburn, what can you tell us about his strengths and weaknesses as a quarterback as you’ve seen thus far?
Metzker:
Oregon’s offensive line is the only unit yet to give up a sack this season, even against Georgia. In the season opener Bo Nix frequently gave up on the play too soon and started scrambling – a familiar sight during Nix’s Auburn days.
Nix’s best qualities are from his physical build. At six-foot-two 213 pounds, Nix has the arm necessary to throw his beloved deep ball along with being able to run through a defender for a QB Sneak. Now that he’s comfortable in the offense, the only thing holding Nix back is his decision making. He is still liable for a poorly-timed deep throw, or going to the same read two plays in a row. The latter was the cause of Washington State’s 95-yard pick-six.
GMC:
A preposterous EIGHTEEN different players — including Bo Nix — have caught passes for the Ducks in their first four games. Who would you say are the top receiving threats Stanford fans should watch for on Saturday?
Metzker:
Nix has been terrific at spreading the ball, but he certainly has found his favorite targets. The first has to be sophomore wideout Troy Franklin. Franklin exploded for 137 receiving yards and the game-winning 50-yard touchdown last week against Wazzou. Franklin leads the team with 20 catches, and has multiple 50-yard receptions on the season.
In the red zone, tight end Terrance Ferguson has been automatic. He scored four touchdowns in his two games at Autzen Stadium, all of which were from within 20 yards.
Another name to watch is wide receiver Chase Cota. Cota transferred to his home-state of Oregon after four years at UCLA. And although he hasn’t scored yet, Cota is second on the team in receptions (14) and yards (163).
GMC:
Even the most high-powered Oregon offenses of the past have been running offenses, and the Ducks have produced some of the best running backs in recent conference history. Who are the lead backs right now, and what’s the general state of the running game?
Metzker:
The Ducks lost their top two running backs CJ Verdell and Travis Dye. In their absence, plenty of faces have gotten hand-offs. But in the the past few weeks, Minnesota-transfer Bucky Irving has made the most of his touches. Irving’s seven yards per carry is good for third among Pac-12 backs, and he has the ability to completely switch the field with just one cut.
Behind Irving, Noah Wittington and Byron Cardwell also get significant time to change the pace throughout the game. But in the red zone, Oregon likes the quarterback keeper. Nix has three rushing touchdowns, while no other player has more than one. Oregon has outrushed their opponent in every game, and always looks to run first.
GMC:
Stanford’s offense will ask Tanner McKee to find success by throwing to his platoon of big receivers. How do you expect the Oregon secondary to handle this challenge?
Oregon’s fantastic defensive line has somewhat shielded the big plays afforded by the secondary. But if there is any weakness in this Oregon team, it is certainly the defensive backs. Oregon gives up a conference-high 301.5 passing yards.
The Ducks do have reliable DBs in safety Bennett Williams and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Williams is a sure-fire tackler, and Gonzalez is reliable against top receivers. Outside of that it gets a bit hairy. Trikweze Bridges is the next-best corner. He had the game-sealing interception last week, but has been susceptible to being beat outside. Stanford has multiple reliable receivers. Plays with three or four receivers lined up could give Dan Lanning’s defense headaches.
GMC:
One thing McKee has struggled with has been getting the ball out on time and avoiding sacks. Considering the Oregon defensive front how big of a concern will that be for Stanford on Saturday? Who are the starts on the defensive line and in the linebacking corps?
Metzker:
The Ducks have just seven sacks, but are perpetually annoying opposing quarterbacks. It’s how outside linebacker Mase Funa jumped on the late-game pick-six last weekend.
The sack leader on the team is DJ Johnson, who lines up opposite of Funa. Johnson got two of his three sacks against Cameron Ward last week. But the second sack was called for targeting, so he’ll miss the first half against Stanford.
Linebacker Noah Sewell rightfully receives plenty of praise. Sewell is an all-around linebacker, but his precision as a pass rusher from his position is what brings NFL scouts to Oregon’s games. The unsung hero that every Oregon player or coach will sing about is defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus. It may not always appear on the stat sheet, but Dorlus puts in the dirty work to create openings for the team.
GMC:
Oregon is a comfortable favorite this weekend. What would have to go wrong for the Ducks to lose this game?
Metzker:
If Stanford wants to haunt Oregon for one more year, it would have to be a bit of a perfect storm. It would take the Stanford defense getting wise on Nix’s favorite routes, and turning some of those mistakes into scores. Picking on Oregon’s corners with Michael Wilson and John Humphreys for big gains, and keeping the tempo high with Casey Filkins out of the backfield.
I say perfect storm, but I don’t think this is too unlikely. Nix makes mistakes, and McKee can make the secondary pay. But one thing that this Oregon team has that past, failed teams have left at home against Stanford is resilience. Lanning’s Oregon scored 21 points in less than three minutes at the end of the Wazzou game to come back and win. That’s something Cristobal’s teams never could do, and that’s why it’s so hard for me to see Oregon losing this one.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess at how we get there.
Metzker:
Saturday night will be the first game this season where all students are back in Eugene, so expect Autzen to be rocking through the night. The Ducks have scored at least 40 points since facing Georgia, and I see that streak continuing. Nix scored five touchdowns in his first two games in Autzen Stadium, and I see that streak continuing as well.
Nix will spread out the touchdown passes along with a rushing touchdown or two, but I also see him throwing an interception or two. I see Oregon going up big, and getting a bit too lackadaisical – perhaps even putting in back-up QB Ty Thompson.
Stanford will have their success in the air, but in the end I see the Ducks getting their revenge over last season’s nightmare ending with a final score of 55-35.
