In the twelve years that I've been writing about Stanford football in this space, no series has been as consistently consequential as the yearly matchups with the USC Trojans. In fact, if we push back a few years and start with 2007, you can easily make the argument that four of the most important games in Stanford history have been victories over the Trojans. First there was the Greatest Upset Ever in 2007, then there was the "What's Your Deal?" game in 2009 that announced to the world that Stanford football was more than just a flash in the pan, next we had the epic triple overtime win in 2011, and finally the 2015 Pac-12 Championship game.
The Trojans have been a measuring stick for the Cardinal throughout the Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw eras, and just as the Stanford wins have been triumphant, the losses have been catastrophic. At no point in the last fifteen years has either fanbase ever left the stadium feeling good about a moral victory. One side's narrow win is the other's heartbreaking defeat; one's joyous romp is the other's embarrassment. This isn't an official rivalry so no trophy is exchanged, but the loser always leaves blood on the field.
For proof we only need turn the calendar back to last year at this time when a fragile Stanford team came into the Los Angeles Coliseum and stunned the Trojans -- and the rest of the college football world -- with a decisive 42-28 victory. And the Trojans bled. Head coach Clay Helton was fired just a few days later.
Even though their team has had success recently in this series, holding a 10-6 edge since Harbaugh arrived in 2007, Stanford fans often complain that while most Power 5 schools are playing one Directional State or another in early September, the Cardinal almost always has USC scheduled during the season's first few weeks. Even in normal years I argue that it's a good thing. What better time to meet your measuring stick than early in the season? I've always felt that any questions swirling around the Cardinal will be answered by the end of the USC game, and that's often been the case. Whether the outcome is positive or negative, this game almost always tells us what we can expect from the rest of the season. (Last year, of course, was a notable exception.)
This year I'd argue that there can be no better time for Stanford to play the Trojans than this Saturday. All signs point towards new head coach Lincoln Riley sculpting his new team into the model program of the Pac-12, and he started the transformation by bringing in a boatload of transfers this summer. They could certainly be unbeatable in November, but now? It's early enough in the process that the Cardinal could be getting them at exactly the right time.
Quarterback Caleb Williams is one of the more talented signal callers in America, but is the rest of the offense ready to roll? What about the USC defense? Has that group come together? And then there's our old friend Austin Jones, who's now one of USC's feature backs. How is he fitting in?
With the bitter taste of last season only diluted a bit by last weekend's win over Colgate, it's hard to look at this game without more than a little apprehension. Like all things this season, everything depends on the offensive line, and not just because the Cardinal will need to put up a lot of points. They'll also need some sustained drives to keep the USC offense on the sidelines. I continue to have faith in quarterback Tanner McKee and his stable of receivers and tight ends, so I don't think it's a stretch to expect somewhere in the neighborhood of three or four touchdowns. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be enough. Unless Stanford wins the turnover battle by two or three, it's hard to imagine that USC won't find the end zone several times. This game feels like a 38-24 Trojan win. Blood on the field.
For thoughts on the Trojans, I reached out to R.J. Abeytia. Stanford fans will remember him as one of the more knowledgable reporters covering Stanford sports during the last decade, but recently he's been covering USC for 247Sports.com (think of him as a lead blocker who paved the way south for Austin Jones), making him the ideal person to speak about this rivalry. When you're done reading his comments below, I encourage you to read a piece he wrote this week previewing the matchup. Click here for that.
And now, here's R.J. Read on, learn on.
Go Mighty Card:
When we spoke this summer, you told me that everything about the USC program has changed since the arrival of Lincoln Riley. What are some of the major differences you’ve seen? Has USC finally, finally, finally found the right coach?
R.J. Abeytia:
Only time will tell, but all indications are that first off, USC is being run by adults now and that Lincoln Riley is among the most impressive coaches in the country. He's clearly upgraded the expectations and behind the scenes demands on the players, and they have responded very positively to it so far. The Trojans spent no shortage of time in the building while off the practice field during training camp, and they seem to be benefitting from Bennie Wylie's strength and conditioning program. It's pretty clear USC has significantly upgraded as a program.
GMC:
For Pac-12 fans who haven’t seen quarterback Caleb Williams, what’s all the fuss about? What does he do well? Are there any weaknesses?
He does many, many things well. He throws an accurate ball from the pocket, and of course he is very difficult both to corral and to actually bring down as David Shaw detailed this week. The ease with which he responded to a blanketed wide receiver group with a 10-12 yard scamper in his first game was impressive. His accuracy does take a dip at times when he's flushed and on the run, and certainly he struggled with some of the more complex looks he got from schools like Baylor last year which is a reflection of the fact that this is still a player with less than ten career college starts under his belt.
GMC:
Stanford fans will likely be interested in seeing our old friend Austin Jones back at Stanford Stadium. How has the transition to the Dark Side gone for him?
Abeytia:
Very, very well. Austin was amused and appreciative when asked about the fact that 44% of his carries last season came against 8+ men in the box and he's already seen far more daylight than that after one game. He seems to have fit in very well with the Trojan locker room, and it clearly feels like a positive move for him at this point.
GMC:
Aside from individual players, what about USC’s offensive scheme should concern the Stanford defense (and fans) the most?
Lincoln Riley does a lot to disrupt eye discipline, and he runs many long-developing routes and plays that really test a back end of the defense. If Stanford is unable to pressure Williams consistently it's going to be a very tough challenge for the Cardinal secondary.
GMC:
Stanford’s opening win over Colgate didn’t really answer the questions surrounding the offensive line. How do you expect that unit to match up against USC’s front?
USC's front didn't really amaze aside from some flashes from Korey Foreman against Rice, but there is talent in that room and Stanford will have to play much better than it did against Colgate to have success against the Trojans.
GMC:
Stanford’s strength on offense is Tanner McKee and his stable of receivers and tight ends. Will this be an advantage on Saturday?
It has to be if Stanford wants to keep this game winnable or even close. On paper, it should be but Alex Grinch is very familiar with what Stanford does so we'll see what he does to counter a clear Cardinal size advantage on the perimeter.
GMC:
What has to happen for Stanford to pull off another upset?
Turnovers and a totally unexpected level of play from Stanford's defense. Stanford should score, but asking them to keep up with Lincoln Riley shot for shot is likely a bridge too far. Early scoring would help Stanford a great deal as well. There is also that third phase of the game. Stanford was an uncharacteristic mess in terms of ball security on special teams. USC was not amazing on special teams, but this is an area where Stanford may need to get an upper hand to shock the Trojans.
GMC:
Finally, who wins? Give me your predicted final score and your best bet as to how we get there.
42-31 USC. I think it will be a close game for much longer than most people do, and USC gets a late score to create the final cushion. I would not be nearly as surprised as others to see Stanford win outright, but it would still qualify as a legitimately unexpected outcome all things considered.
