Once upon a time, if you were opening conference play against two teams who each were breaking in a new quarterback and also had brand new coaching staffs, you might feel like the schedule makers had smiled upon you. You'd assume those two early wins and begin thinking about bowl game destinations.
For the second consecutive game, Stanford will face an opponent with a brand new quarterback, a brand new system, and a brand new coaching staff. Unfortunately for the Cardinal, USC seemed to be in midseason form when they travelled to the Farm two weeks ago, and the Washington Huskies also look to be adjusting well to all the new faces in the building.
Washington opened with two sacrificial lambs, Kent State and Portland State, beating them by a combined score of 97-26. It was easy to discount those two wins, but last week they beat #11 Michigan State 39-28 in a game that was essentially over at halftime. September rankings don't mean much, but this was still an impressive win over a name brand team, a statement win for a new staff and a new quarterback.
The new quarterback is Michael Penix, Jr. After playing four years at Indiana, but never more than six games in a season, Penix transferred to Washington and he seems to have found a home. He has an impressive touchdown to interception ratio of 10 to 1, and he lit up the Spartan defense last Saturday for -- look away if you're squeamish -- 397 yards and four touchdowns. While Stanford fans likely drew comfort from the fact that USC's offense would be the best the Cardinal would see this season, only two weeks later another juggernaut looms.
The good news -- and there is good news -- is that the Cardinal offense isn't too bad either, and they should be able to score some points. Running back E.J. Smith is out with an injury, and news broke Friday evening that starting tackle Myles Hinton would be staying home also, but there were enough positive signs against USC to make me think that Stanford will score enough points to keep things close. If things break right for the Cardinal -- a turnover profit rather than the deficit we've seen each of the first two games would be nice -- they could even pull off the upset. I think this will definitely be another step forward for the team, but I also think they'll come just short. I'm predicting a 34-30 win for the Huskies.
For a deeper look at Washington, I once again connected with John Sayler of UW Dawg Pound to get his perspective on the game. (You can read my answers to his questions over at their site.) Read on...
GMC:
We have to start with the top — new head coach Kalen DeBoer. It’s only been three games, but are you seeing any differences around the program?
UW Dawg Pound:
DeBoer is very popular with the fanbase. Winning does that. Fans love offense, and the Huskies have been scoring TDs like crazy this season. He has a transparency that is comforting to fans who remember how good Chris Petersen was with the media, and how truly awful Jimmy Lake was at handling that part of the job. It just really seems like there is a lot more attention to detail with DeBoer, and his game plans have been very good. I think there is a sense that this is “the guy” for Washington, and if they can keep playing well in Pac-12 play, he will cement himself further with the UW faithful.
GMC:
The first two games might not have told you a lot, but the decisive win over a nationally-ranked Big Ten team is significant. What’s the mood in the fanbase right now, and how have expectations changed?
UW Dawg Pound:
I think most fans are smart enough to not get overly caught up in the whole “beating a ranked team” narrative. Michigan State was 11-2 last season, that’s why they were ranked near the top 10. Three games in, we don’t know how good MSU really is in 2022. I prefer to think of this as a decisive win over a quality Power 5 opponent, one that had to travel out west and play in a hostile Husky Stadium. That said, I didn’t think the Huskies would win that game. Expectations before the season were for around 8 wins, and now that has jumped to a 10-win year and a decent chance at playing for a Pac-12 championship.
GMC:
In the old days, any team with a new head coach and a transfer quarterback would seem to be a work in progress, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here. Give me a breakdown of quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., thus far. I know it’s only been three games, but what do you know for sure about him?
UW Dawg Pound:
It’s looking more and more like the team a year ago was not as bad as the 4-8 record indicated, and it really seems like there was a culture problem. I had a hard time buying into that as I thought it was just hopefulness (you can’t fire the team, fire the coach), but the hot start this season with mostly the same roster (minus two highly drafted cornerbacks) shows that the program is not really in rebuild mode. The transfer QB situation is just something that worked out so well for DeBoer and the Huskies. Getting an experienced QB that has played under this staff in the past really allowed them to hit the ground running this season.
Penix is outstanding with his reads, his footwork, and his throws. He is not a running QB, but he his mobile enough in the pocket to slide around and find room to make his throws. What I know for sure about him is that he is the best QB I have seen at UW in a long time (sorry Jake Browning), and we are all hoping he can stay healthy for a full season, something he has never done in his career.
GMC:
In general, how would you describe the Huskies’ offense? Do you expect the emphasis on the passing game to continue this week against Stanford? Which players aside from the quarterback should we be watching on Saturday?
UW Dawg Pound:
UW has an outstanding WR group, maybe better (deeper at least) than the John Ross/Dante Pettis duo in 2016. Between Jalen McMillan, Rome Odunze, and Ja’lynn Polk, I really can’t say which one is the best of that group. Throw in Taj Davis and Giles Jackson, and you have a really talented and reliable group of pass catchers.
I would assume that UW will take what Stanford gives them. If they are playing coverage with a light grouping at the line of scrimmage, I would think they will run the ball until Stanford adjusts. David Shaw has a way of scheming beautifully, so this will be a challenge for OC Ryan Grubb.
This is very much a pro-style offense, and you will get dizzy from all the shifts. They don’t huddle at all, and Penix is pretty good at getting the team into the right play (usually).
GMC:
What’s going on with the defense? What types of schemes are they running, and who are the stars on that side of the ball?
UW Dawg Pound:
This is the side of the ball that has Husky fans concerned. They have had a lot of trouble losing track of mobile QBs, and the pass coverage –while it has gotten better—is still not great. The biggest difference from last year is the improvement in the run defense. Defensive tackle Tuli Letuligasenoa (#91) has been outstanding, and the rest of the D-Line has been playing well so far. The pass rush, led by Bralen Trice (#8) and Zion Tupuola-Fetui (#58), is generating pressure, but they have not had a ton of success corralling the QB. The scheme this season has been way more aggressive than it was in the Jimmy Lake years, which has been good and bad. More tackles for loss, but also a lot of players getting out of position.
GMC:
The Huskies are favored by almost two touchdowns. What would have to go wrong for them to lose this game?
UW Dawg Pound:
Stanford needs to get off to a good start. Last week, the Huskies buried Michigan State early, and the Spartans couldn’t recover until it was too late. Shaw will have a good gameplan, he always does. They need to figure out some way of getting the UW offense out of rhythm, and then attack a Husky secondary that has not been outstanding.
GMC:
Finally, what’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best bet as to how we get there.
UW Dawg Pound:
Stanford is going to move the ball against this Husky defense, and whether they can convert those drives into touchdowns will go a long way in determining how this game plays out. David Shaw and his staff will see plenty of weaknesses in the UW defense, and will have a good game plan for attacking it. But I would think he is awfully worried about how he will slow this UW offense. Stopping the run and making UW one-dimensional is a strategy that I could see him employing. I think the Huskies win this game, but not by two touchdowns.
Give me the Dawgs, 38-27.
