Last year's comfortable 35-14 win for Oregon State over Stanford ended an eleven-game winning streak in the series for the Cardinal. Before that win, the Beavers had been the only team in the conference never to have beaten David Shaw. That would've been news, but coming as it did in the middle of a depressing seven-game losing streak to close the season -- or a ten-game streak if we include this fall and don't include the win over Colgate -- the end of that streak hardly made news.
As Stanford heads into this Saturday's game against Oregon State, they welcome the Beavers after suffering a string of non-competitive losses to USC, Washington, and Oregon. An optimistic fan would argue -- as I have -- that those three teams are not just three of the best in a conference that's stronger than most thought it would be, but three of the best in the nation. But no matter how optimistic one might be, the Cardinal is still 1-3, and it's still been more than a full year since they last beat an FBS team.
Oregon State, meanwhile, is in a similar position, though perhaps not as desperate. The Beavers have had an interesting first five games. The enjoyed a 3-0 non-conference slate highlighted by a road over Fresno State in which head coach Jonathan Smith eschewed a tying field goal attempt on the game's final play and instead called the running play that resulted in a 35-32 win at the gun.
Energized by that fast start, the Beavers nearly upset USC at home but then lost big to Utah on the road, 42-16. There's no shame in either a narrow loss to the Trojans or any type of loss to the Utes, but I'd imagine that those two games have at the very least brought a sense of urgency to Oregon State as they head into Saturday's game.
If they were being honest, I'm guessing that both Coach Smith and Coach Shaw would describe this matchup as a must-win game, but it's clearly a must-er win game for the Cardinal. If we're being objective, it isn't a surprise that Stanford lost its first three conference games to superior teams, nor will it be a surprise if they lost to Notre Dame next weekend. Sure, Arizona State is waiting, but game against the Beavers is important not just for the fans who are calling for David Shaw's job, but for the players in the locker room who are talking openly about being tired of losing.
Considering that desperation, along with the fact that they're playing at home (and in front of students for the first time), I'm predicting a narrow 27-24 win for the Cardinal. Casey Filkins will have another solid game, Tanner McKee will make more use of his weapons on the outside, a Josh Karty will hit a couple long field goals. And just for fun, I'll also predict that Stanford will win the turnover battle for the first time this season.
For a deeper look at Oregon State and an alternate perspective on the game, I reached out to my old friend angry host of angrybeavs.com, one of the most active fan sites in the conference, and certainly the most welcoming. (You can read my answers to angry's questions over at his place.) Anyway, here's angry...
GMC:
In general, how are fans feeling about the Jonathan Smith and the program? After getting to a bowl game last year, what were the expectations for this year, and is Smith meeting them?
angry:
I think the realistic goals were 8 wins, to build on the prior year and get to a better bowl game. But many of us thought OSU was set up for a magical season. You can see why in how they won all 3 non-conference games and then almost beat USC. The problem is the Beavs left those 50/50 "what if" plays on the field vs USC, and they haven't been the same since. I think the magical season is now out the window, and it's back to hoping to win 8 games and get to a better bowl game. This game vs Stanford will be the tipping point in whether a magical season is still possible. I think fans overall are happy with Smith. He's improved some of his very poor 4th down decisions from last years.
GMC:
There was a near miss against USC, but then a big loss to Utah. What was the difference in those two games?
angry:
Mental state. Versus USC it's a home game, at night, with a lot on the line (1st in the PAC, a national ranking, etc). Versus Utah you knew there would be a let down. Early game, road game, after a tough loss vs USC that would have had them ranked. It's tough for a team to recover from that. Chance Nolan continued his poor QB play vs Utah as well, which didn't help.
GMC:
The Beavers are having issues at quarterback, and it doesn’t like the Saturday starter has been named. How important is that, and how will the game change for Oregon State depending on which quarterback is on the field?
angry:
I think Nolan will start, but if not it will be Gulbranson. He was a high 3-star recruit with a lot of upside, but he is young and prone to errors. Then again, Nolan has been making errors. Nolan has more command of the offense and is a better runner. Gulbranson has more natural ability as a passer but is raw. It's hard to say how that plays out vs Stanford. I'd almost rather see Gulbranson get a full game.
GMC:
The Beaver running game looks as solid as usual. Who are the main threats there, and how to you expect them to be utilized against Stanford?
angry:
The main guys are Fenwick, Martinez, and Jam Griffin (4-star GaTech transfer). Griffin has looked the best. He has an elite burst and a chiseled body. The other two guys have been okay, though, and for whatever reason Smith has given them more carries to this point. Probably playbook and blocking with Griffin being a transfer and all. I expect Griffin to pull away as he has by far looked the most elite, but I don't know if that happens this weekend because it will really depend where he's at with schemes, blocking, and playbook. Fenwick and Martinez are capable runners, though.
GMC:
Aside from the quarterback, are there any other injury issues facing the Beavers right now?
angry:
Yeah, Luke Musgrave. The Beavs offense has not been the same since he went out vs Fresno. They likely would have beaten USC with him in there, and then it's an entirely different season. The drop-off in TE production has been palpable. Trey Lowe is also hurt. He's a 3rd down back with elite speed. I haven't heard if he will be back for this game. Both are big losses. Alton Julian, an elite saftey, has also been out. He might play in this game, which would be big. I can't think of any other key injuries off hand.
GMC:
The Stanford offensive line isn’t at its best right now, and they’ve struggled in recent weeks against strong front sevens. How do you expect Oregon State’s defensive front to attack the Cardinal? Who should we be watching in that group?
angry:
The D-line has been so good this year. If you have time, watch the USC game. They had stand after stand versus that elite offense. They're finally getting pressure this year and actually finishing plays. It's been a pleasure to watch after the past few years of no pressure, no finishing of plays the few times they did get pressure. Expect pressure. Expect unorthodox blitzes (corner, safety, etc). Trent Bray has them playing loose, fast, and fun.
GMC:
Stanford’s passing game looks to take advantage of smaller defensive backs. How do you feel about that matchup?
angry:
Pretty good. The Beavs secondary is really good. Rezjohn Wright is 6'2", Alex Austin 6'1", Jaydon Grant 6'0", and Julian if he returns 6'2" and an elite safety. Kitan Oladapo (#28) has been elite this year and came out of nowhere. There's really been zero drop off from Julian due to how well he has played. He's 6'1". If Stanford wants to take advantage of a small secondary, I don't think it's going to happen this week.
GMC:
This feels like a game that will change the fortunes of both teams going forward. What’s your prediction? Give me a final score and your best guess as to how we get there.
angry:
This is the year the Beavs finally break the losing streak. I'm 99% sure of it. They will run the ball, get just enough QB play, and continue the hair on fire defense to take advantage of a Stanford team that's not up to their standards. Beavs 35, Stanford 17.
