When Jim Harbaugh was hired as Stanford's newest head coach in December of 2006, he famously announced that he'd be approaching the job "with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind." While that statement caused eyes to roll up and down the Pac-10 and even, I'd imagine, within the halls of Stanford's athletic department, Harbaugh had no choice. He was taking over a team that had finished 1-11 in 2006, one of the worst performances in the history of a program without much positive history. Before his hire there were many observers -- and even some Stanford decision makers, if we're to believe the lore -- who no longer thought Stanford could field a competitive Division I football team.
But Harbaugh believed.
Stanford's newest head coach is Troy Taylor, and while no one will ever confuse his personality with Harbaugh's, Taylor's opening press conference had one thing in common with Harbaugh's -- hope. Following Stanford's recent slide to the bottom of the PAC-12 during an era of unprecedented change across the college football landscape, once again there have been voices calling for change. It was no longer realistic, some argued, for Stanford to compete at this level in this era. (A Stanford professor even used an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times to lament what he saw as the folly of Stanford Football.)
But Troy Taylor believes.
We're still almost two months away from seeing Taylor on the sidelines in Stanford Stadium, but we're already seeing his impact on the program along with proof that the reports of Stanford Football's death have been greatly exaggerated.
Taylor's staff has approached recruiting in a manner that's reminiscent of Harbaugh and his staff. Taylor spent the first few weeks on the job essentially recruiting his own players, doing his best to convince them that he could duplicate the lower-division success he had at Sacramento State and rebuild a program whose Rose Bowl appearances aren't that far in the rear view mirror. The eventual departures have been well documented, but since Taylor and his staff have turned their attention to the recruiting Class of '24, it is clear that something different is going on.
Before Taylor's arrival, Stanford recruiting appeared to have devolved into complacency. The prior staff seemed to wonder why anyone wouldn't want to come and play for them. This was a place where you can win Rose Bowls, contend for Heismans, and get drafted to the NFL. Oh, and by the way, you can do all of this in sunny California at the best university in the country. A few years ago when I asked then head coach David Shaw if the University was the true great recruiter, his response was immediate: "One hundred percent."
Eventually that complacency caught up to them. It used to be understood that no admitted recruit would turn down a Stanford offer, but Shaw's staff began losing recruiting battles towards the end of his time at the helm, and that likely contributed to the decline in performance on the field and definitely led to the perception that it was simply too difficult to recruit at Stanford.
Like Harbaugh before him, Taylor jumped into recruiting with both feet and cast a wide net. In the early months of this year I felt like I was seeing more Stanford offers reported on Twitter than usual, so I looked for some quantifiable data to support my perception. Here's what I found. Take a look at this graph of Stanford scholarship offers over time. (Data from 247Sports.com.)
We see the uptick in offers under Jim Harbaugh, a slight decline towards the end of David Shaw's time in the head office, and then the jump under Troy Taylor.
What the graph doesn't show is that there are already 29 offers for the class of 2025 and nine for the class of '26, nine players who just finished their freshmen years of high school. The clear idea behind these early offers is to put a carrot in front of these young men. A sixteen-year-old kid with a Stanford offer in his pocket will be much more likely to do the extra studying, register for AP classes, and work on the Stanford application. It just makes sense to get to kids early.
But back to the Class of '24. In addition to the increase in offers, there has also been an additional official visit weekend. There were three organized weekends in June, and the early returns have been significant. Fifteen recruits showed up on the first weekend of June, and eleven of them committed within a week. Nine came the following weekend, and seven of those committed. There were three more commits after the third weekend, with the possibility of more to come.
Even with the backdrop of last season's abysmal on-field performance, last month's recruiting haul proves that in this N.I.L. era, Stanford can still compete for top talent. From June 13-18 alone Stanford gained verbal commitments from seven four-star prospects, a haul of talent that vaulted the Cardinal into 9th place in the national rankings and second in the Pac-12. (Admittedly, these lofty rankings reflect the size of this class as much as the quality; no team in the country can match Stanford's 27 commitments*, and next best in conference team are Oregon and USC with seventeen each.)
The eye-opener in this class is four-star quarterback Elijah Brown out of Southern California football powerhouse Mater Dei. (You know his predecessor, Heisman Trophy winner and #1 NFL draft pick Bryce Young.) In two years as a starter Brown has thrown for 5,366 yards and 61 touchdowns against just ten interceptions while playing in arguably the toughest prep league in America. Max Preps recently named him the top high school player in California entering this season. As a side note, I can't imagine it hurts recruiting to have a legend like Andrew Luck on campus as a grad student, so it's likely he was instrumental in the recruiting process. (As a side note to that side note, I don't think quarterback recruiting will be a problem going forward. The prospect of playing in an aggressive offense led a head coach/offensive coordinator who is a former quarterback along with the possibility of having a conversation or two with Luck will definitely be appealing to the nation's best high school quarterbacks.)
But the highest rated commit is on the other side of the ball, defensive end Dylan Stephenson out of Columbus High School in Miami. Another four-star prospect, Stephenson was quoted this week in an article by Antonio Morales in the Athletic: "[Defensive coordinator Bobby April] came to my school twice during the spring, and that really doesn't happen very often. Most schools only come once to check out the landscape, but it really impressed me when he came to see me."
That explanation speaks to the all-hands-on-deck effort that this staff seems to be putting into the recruiting process. Consider the obstacles that Stanford faces. Schools like Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, and Georgia sit in the middle of the most talent-rich area of the country. Florida, Florida State, and Miami would likely be fine if they never recruited outside of the Sunshine State, and Texas would probably also be happy with a roster full of homegrown talent.
But Stanford must be a national recruiter, necessitating 3,000-mile plane flights from San Francisco to Miami. (And while Alabama and Georgia coaches might be able to hop on a donor-provided private jet for a non-stop flight to any town with an airport, Stanford coaches have to combat the vagaries of airline schedules and connecting flights as well as the cramped quarters of economy class.) If there's a recruit in Miami that you really want, you can't just assume that he'll decide to come on his own. Stephenson was clearly impressed by the second visit, and that seems to be the difference between this staff and the last one.
It should also be noted that while Stanford does seem to have embraced the N.I.L. world to a degree, I don't think Taylor's staff has gotten these 27 commitments with promises of cash. The recently formed Lifetime Cardinal collective is structured to pay each player $10,000 a year, roughly twenty percent of the average payments to the top half of Power 5 starters in 2022. These kids aren't coming to Stanford for a quick pay day, they're coming because they see value in what the program and the University offer, and because they feel valued themselves. It's a simple formula, and so far it's working.
Of course, all of this is just hypothetical at this point. We won't truly be able to begin judging the resurgence of this program until September 1st when Stanford opens the 2023 season in Hawai'i, and each week after that will be critical as Taylor and his staff hope to maintain the momentum they've built during this recruiting season. I, for one, cannot wait.
*The Naval Academy actually has 30 commitments, but since the breakdown there is one three star commit, 26 two stars, and three unrated players, they don't really belong in this discussion.
