Go Mighty Card

Stanford 46, Colorado 43 (2OT)

To fully understand what happened in Boulder, Colorado, on Friday night, you must have experienced the first half, a half of football that felt all too familiar for Stanford fans.

Things didn't go well for the Cardinal. The offense was struggling. Coach Troy Taylor's quarterback carousel continued, with Justin Lamson getting the start but doing nothing to inspire much hope -- or gain much yardage. All three of Lamson's passes on the opening possession fell incomplete, leading to a punt, and though he did complete a pass on the next drive (those would be his total passing stats for the night), the Cardinal punted again after seven plays. If the offense couldn't get going against Colorado's porous defense, it seemed, it might never get going.

Colorado 35, Stanford 32

I spent only thirty minutes or so rehashing Stanford's most recent loss on Saturday afternoon before making an intentional decision to move on. I gathered the wife and kids in the family room for some takeout and slid a movie into the disc player. The burger was deliciously decadent, the Coke was icy and refreshing, and the movie -- Ralph Macchio in the original Karate Kid -- was the perfect pairing. Nostalgia for my wife and me, backstory for our children who had recently discovered Cobra Kai on Netflix.

If you've been visiting this spot for a while, you probably won't be surprised that I'm a sucker for nostalgia. I was fourteen when I watched The Karate Kid in the theater for the first time, and it hit me in all the right spots back then -- the music, the action, Elisabeth Shue -- all of it. Watching it again on Saturday night, with the wounds still open from Saturday afternoon's game, I couldn't stop my mind from making connections from the film to the current state of the Stanford football program.

You likely know the story. Young Daniel LaRusso arrives in California from his native New Jersey and has trouble adjusting. Bullies beat him up at every turn, and he continuously sabotages his relationship with the cutest girl in the school, but with the guidance of a wise mentor, Mr. Miyagi, Daniel eventually figures everything out and triumphs in the end.

As I watched Daniel getting kicked in the head on the beach, being pushed off of his bike and tumbling down a hillside, and getting jumped by guys in skeleton costumes, I thought about how nice life is when you're the bully. That's not the message the filmmakers were trying to send back in 1984, but the nostalgia coursing through my veins was doing funny things to my synapses, and I thought back to a time when Stanford football was bully ball, when opponents routinely left the field beaten in ways not measured by the scoreboard. The good old days.

Blogging with the Enemy: Colorado Buffaloes

Could it be that we're finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel? After struggling for weeks with injuries and uncertainty at multiple positions on both sides of the ball, the Cardinal looks to be stable, if not dramatically healthier. We should see the same five starters along the offensive line for the third game in a row, the longest streak of the season, and while K.J. Costello isn't yet one hundred percent, he's reported to have been a full participant in practice for the first time since September. So as the Cardinal heads into the home stretch, the schedule seems to line up nicely. First there are games against the three teams with the worst records in the conference, followed by a visit from Notre Dame, a team who looks much more beatable than they did just two weeks ago. Can the Cardinal run the table and finish 8-4? That's a bit much to consider right now, so instead let's focus on the first step, the Colorado Buffaloes.

Blogging with the Enemy: Colorado Buffaloes

The Colorado Buffaloes arrived in the newly expanded Pac-12 five years ago, and they dutifully took their place at the bottom of the conference, suffering forty-point losses to Stanford and Oregon and winning just two league games on their way to a 3-10 overall record. Things only got worse the following year, with four forty-point losses (including a 70-14 shellacking at the hands of the Ducks) and a 1-11 mark. They managed just one conference win in 2013, and while they finished 0-9 in league in 2014, there were fewer blowouts and there was a feeling that the Buffs were getting closer. The strides expected in 2015, however, didn’t happen, as the Buffaloes again only earned a single league win and finished a disappointing 4-9. During its five years of conference membership, Colorado has posted a 14-47 overall mark with an anemic 5-40 record inside the Pac-12. To say that they’ve been doormats would be putting it nicely.

 

All of which makes what’s happened thus far this season all the more surprising. The Buffs opened with two convincing wins over Colorado State and Idaho State, outscoring those two opponents by a combined 100-14. Those win were easily dismissed as coming against inferior competitions, but over the next two weeks it became clear that there was something different going on with the 2016 Colorado Buffaloes. First they travelled to Ann Arbor and stood toe to toe with the Michigan Wolverines, holding a 21-7 lead after the first quarter, and a 28-24 lead early in the third quarter. That game would get away late and end 45-28 in favor of the Wolverines, but a week later Colorado travelled to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks, the team that had beaten them byeight touchdowns not long ago, and came home with a 41-38 win.

 

Since that game the Buffaloes have added wins over Oregon State and Arizona State to bring their record to 5-2 and 3-1 and claim the top spot in the Pac-12 South, making this already their best season since joining the conference.

 

How has this dramatic transformation happened? For one thing, the Buffs have found balance on offense. Senior quarterback Sefo Liufau began showing flashes of potential early in his career, and this year he seems to have put everything together. Last week against Arizona State he threw for 265 yards while rushing for 38. As impressive as that is, perhaps the best thing he did was hand the ball to Phillip Lindsay 26 times and watch him rumble for 219 yards and three touchdowns. These L&L Boys will look to barbecue the Stanford defense on Saturday afternoon. If they get rolling, the Buffalo offense will be difficult to stop.

 

The good news, of course, is that Stanford’s defensive line has been playing at a high level all season long and seems to be getting better each week. Solomon Thomas had what might have been the best game of his career last weekend against Notre Dame, and I expect him to continue his stellar season with another big performance against the Buffs. With his presence in the backfield and the lockdown coverage of Quenton Meeks downfield, I think the Stanford defense will lead the way to a 24-16 Stanford win.

 

But you didn’t come here to read my thoughts, you want an expert’s opinion of the Colorado Buffaloes. For that I give you Brian Howell, columnist at the BuffZone.com. Now I’ll get out of the way.

 

Go Mighty Card:
I still catch myself referring to the conference as the Pac-10 from time to time. How to Colorado fans feel about the conference? Does it feel like home yet? 

 

Brian Howell:

I think it felt like home right from the start. The Pac-12 is a much better fit for Colorado than the Big 12, in a lot of ways. More than anything, it’s a great fit for the alumni. CU has a large alumni base in the Pac-12 footprint, and not so much in the Big 12. And, fans love traveling to Pac-12 locations for games. All-in-all, I’ve heard no complaints about the change.

 

GMC:
Last year it felt like the Buffaloes were a good team on the rise, but they just weren't yet ready to close out games. Do you feel like that's accurate? How have things changed this season?

 

Howell:

Yes, it was accurate, to a point. They were nowhere near this explosive on offense, though, and injuries buried this team in 2015. This year, they’ve been healthy and they’re a more experienced, veteran group. Combine that with the changes they made to the offense to make it more explosive and it’s been a recipe for success.

 

GMC:

Stanford fans have enjoyed watching Solomon Thomas wreaking havoc with opposing offenses this year, but the Buffs have their own defensive star, Jimmie Gilbert. How do those two players compare? What are Gilbert's strengths?

 

Howell:

Thomas is much bigger and plays more on the interior, whereas Gilbert is a long, lean outside linebacker. He’s a talented pass rusher and does a nice job setting the edge. Gilbert also has the luxury of having one of the Pac-12’s best secondaries behind him. The real star of the Colorado defense is cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who is exceptional in coverage and against the run.

 

GMC:

Quarterback Sefo Liufau has missed some time, but it looks like he's on schedule to start for the Buffs on Saturday. How has he progressed as a quarterback? What are his strengths and weaknesses?

 

Howell:

Liufau is having his best season, by far. He’s a four-year starter and playing like it. His leadership and experience have been invaluable for this team. He’s been very accurate and has avoided mistakes (no interceptions this year), which plagued him in the past. It’s helped him a lot, though, that his teammates have improved. Liufau has more talent around him than ever before. His weakness is that he can sometimes make a bad, costly decision, but he hasn’t done much of that this year.

 

GMC:

After his breakout game against ASU last week, has Phillip Lindsay become the lead back? What are his strengths? Who else should the Stanford defense be concerned about?

 

Howell:

Lindsay has pretty much been the lead back all season. He’s not a big guy (5-8, 190), but he plays big. He’s a strong runner and has good speed, but doesn’t often break long runs. He’s also got great hands as a receiver (I’m not sure I’ve ever seen him drop a pass) and is a good blocker in pass protection. In terms of running backs, you might see Kyle Evans, who is another small (5-6, 175), but powerful runner. Donovan Lee could be a factor, too, but he hasn’t done much since Week 2. If Lindsay and Evans stay healthy, they’ll team with Liufau to handle the run game.

 

GMC:

What's your prediction for the game? If you can, give me a final score and an explanation for how we get there.

 

Howell:

For the first time, CU actually matches up with Stanford. Frankly, the Buffs are having a better season and might be a better team right now. Something tells me Stanford will play well in this one, though. The Cardinal have five very winnable conference games on the horizon and they know they could get on a nice run, and it starts on Saturday. I’m expecting a tough, physical, close game, but give the edge to Stanford, 27-23.

 

 

Stanford 42, Colorado 10

At this point in Kevin Hogan's four-year Stanford career, the records and milestones are beginning to fall like dominos. It's appropriate, then, that he broke Andrew Luck's school record for wins as a starting quarterback in Boulder, Colorado. It was in Boulder three years ago that Hogan burst onto the scene and claimed the quarterback job in Stanford's 48-0 win over Colorado. He didn't start that game, so that victory isn't counted in his total, but he's started and won 32 games since then, the most recent coming on Saturday.

Blogging with the Enemy: Colorado Buffaloes

It was 2012 the last time Stanford played Colorado, and things were different. Back on that first Saturday of November, Kevin Hogan was given a shot at the quarterback job, and he took advantage. We knew little about Hogan prior to that afternoon. No one had been waiting for him the way some now wait for Keller Chryst, and most fans who were asking for a change at the position were actually calling for someone else. All we had really seen from Hogan over the first seven games were seven quarterback keepers for sixteen yards and just a single pass, albeit a touchdown in Big Game. When David Shaw announced he'd be giving Hogan two series against Colorado, it seemed like desperation. No one, not even Shaw or Hogan, could possibly have guessed what would happen that day, let alone over the next two months.

The 2015 Schedule

With no game to look forward to this Saturday, now seems like the perfect time to look at the Cardinal's 2015 schedule, released this week by the Pac-12. Far too many things will happen between now and next fall to predict outcomes of any of the games, but let's take a game-by-game trip through the schedule anyway, just for fun. Oh, and keep this in mind as we go -- the schedule sets up perfectly for a run to the playoffs.

Stanford 48, Colorado 0

In most cases, the final score of a game will tell you all you need to know. In games like Saturday afternoon's contest between Stanford and Colorado, it tells you nothing.

A typical college football fan sitting on the couch watching the Alabama-LSU snooze fest or the Oregon-USC shootout on Saturday night saw "#14 Stanford 48 Colorado 0" scroll by on the bottom of the screen and probably thought one thing: "Wow, Colorado must really be awful."

While that may be true, that doesn't tell you the whole story. Not even close. Allow me to tell you the whole story.

Blogging With the Enemy: Colorado Buffaloes

When the Colorado Buffaloes joined the Pac-12 for the 2011 season, they did so after a mediocre Big 12 season that saw them finish 5-7 overall and only 2-6 in conference. Since arriving in the Pac-12, things have gone downhill.

Last year the Buffs managed just two conference wins over Arizona and Utah and finished at 3-10 overall, and it's gotten worse this year. Were it not for a miraculous 4th-quarter comeback against Washington State (the Buffaloes trailed 31-14 before scoring three touchdowns in the final 7:06 to steal a 35-34 win), Colorado would be winless this year, and their losses haven't been close.

For the most part, it's the defense that has been the problem. In their seven defeats they've been outscored by an average of 32 points, and they've let opposing teams break out in spectacular fashion. How spectacular? Take a look:

• Fresno State running back Robbie Rouse racked up 144 yards on just nine carries, and the Bulldogs scored on two plays of more than 90 yards, the first time a team had done this in one game since 2004. Fresno State 69, Colorado 14.
• UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley threw for 281 yards while passing for two touchdowns and running for two more. UCLA 42, Colorado 14.
• Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly threw for 308 yards and five touchdowns. Arizona State 51, Colorado 17.
• USC quarterback Matt Barkley completed 19 of 20 passes, including six touchdowns. USC 50, Colorado 6.
• The Oregon Ducks scored 56 points in the first half, including two touchdowns each from Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas. Oregon 70, Colorado 14.

What does all that portend for this week's matchup with the Cardinal? With the recent struggles the Stanford offense has been having, this might be just what the doctor ordered. Most fans were expecting a relaxing win over Washington State last weekend, and when that didn't materialize, even Coach Shaw was forced to consider different options. Kevin Hogan has been promised 15 to 20 plays, and this week seems like the ideal time to open up the Hogan Package.

For more on the Buffs, here's some deeper insight from Jon Woods of the Ralphie Report. (You can view my side of the Q&A over at his site, and you can also read a few quick hitters from me over at Pacific Takes.) Anyway, here you go...

Will Hogan Be the Hero?

After the Washington loss, back when concerns over Josh Nunes and the Stanford offense were first starting to crescendo, I used this space to make a few suggestions to Coach Shaw. My first request was to unleash Kelsey Young, something I'm still waiting to see, but check out #2:

2. Run the Sequoia (wildcat), but use Kevin Hogan.
I loved when you rolled this out last week. Hogan is a mobile quarterback with speed, but he's still a quarterback, which means he can throw the ball. The wildcat we saw early in the season was terribly one-dimensional -- Anthony Wilkerson up the middle. There was a numbers advantage, and the play typically gained five or six yards (which is never a bad thing) but there's no guessing for the defense. With Hogan back there, everything changes. And here's the hidden bonus, Coach. If you commit to giving Hogan four wildcat plays in each half, you'll also get a look at how the offense performs with a different quarterback. I know you've made it clear that the quarterback competition ended in August and you aren't interested in discussing it, but somewhere in the back of your mind you must be wondering, even just a little bit.  

The word out of Palo Alto this week is that this is exactly what's happening. Hogan has played a handful of downs in each of the past two games, but on Tuesday Shaw promised 12 to 20 plays for the Hogan Package. (More good news: that means more Kelsey Young as well.) When I suggested this back on October 6th, I noted that this could also be a way to gradually make a quarterback change without ripping the bandaid off all at once. It seems Shaw was paying attention. When asked if Hogan might eventually become the starter, he answered in the affirmative: "Anything is possible, which is always the thing when you're going to give a guy more time at any position."

And suddenly this Saturday's game against Colorado is a LOT more interesting.

[Photo Credit: Kelley L. Cox/US Presswire]