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A Half Full Look at the 2024 Stanford Football Schedule

Because I'm doing my best to look at the bright side of college football's new reality, I'll present this schedule overview without sadness, sarcasm, or cynicism. Just the facts as they're laid out before us.

The Atlantic Coast Conference -- that's Stanford's new football conference now, for those who aren't aware -- announced its schedule rotation through the year 2030. (That's rather optimistic considering Clemson and Florida State are already house shopping in the SEC, but no cynicism, remember?)

Blogging with the Enemy: Oregon State Beavers

Last year's comfortable 35-14 win for Oregon State over Stanford ended an eleven-game winning streak in the series for the Cardinal. Before that win, the Beavers had been the only team in the conference never to have beaten David Shaw. That would've been news, but coming as it did in the middle of a depressing seven-game losing streak to close the season -- or a ten-game streak if we include this fall and don't include the win over Colgate -- the end of that streak hardly made news.

Blogging with the Enemy: Oregon State Beavers

When Stanford football travels north to Corvallis to play Oregon State, the games always seem to be close and dramatic, so I'm always surprised when I notice the long winning streak the Cardinal owns against the Beavers. It's grown to eleven games at this point, and Oregon State remains the only conference team that hasn't beaten David Shaw in his career as Stanford's head coach.

If those streaks are to continue, a lot of the current trends surrounding Stanford football are going to have to change. Oregon State's success this year has been built around its strong running game. They lead the Pac-12 in rushing with 229.9 yards per game (9th in the nation), and bruising tailback B.J. Baylor is averaging 6.1 yards per carry against conference opponents. Only three weeks ago, facing the same Utah defense that just erased the Stanford running game, Baylor rumbled for 152 yards on just 19 carries. How important is their reliance on the running game? Over their last seven games, when the Beavers throw the ball fewer than twenty times, they're undefeated; when they throw for more than twenty, they haven't won.

Stanford 27, Oregon State 24

One day I'll visit Corvallis. It will be an autumn weekend, so the leaves will be changing as I enjoy a morning walk in the hills. If time allows I'll visit one of the local vineyards or wander into a bookstore. But with every step I take in that small college town, I'll be thinking of the game that will have brought me there. No matter how strong the Stanford team might be, no matter the quality of the Oregon State squad, I'll be worried. 

It's never easy when Stanford travels to play the Beavers in Corvallis, not even back during the glory days of last decade. Even though the Cardinal hasn't lost to Oregon State since Andrew Luck's first season at quarterback, several of the wins have been narrow, and at least one (a 15-14 Stanford win in 2017) undeserved. (By the way, I just read my recap of that game, and three years later it still gave me anxiety. Serious anxiety.)

Blogging with the Enemy: Oregon State Beavers

Two of the most impressive winning streaks in the history of Stanford football came to an end last season, nine straight wins over Cal and eleven straight over UCLA, but there's still one active conference streak that remains intact. David Shaw has never lost to Oregon State, and Stanford has beaten the Beavers ten times in row overall, with their last loss a 38-28 defeat in 2009. Oregon State has been at or near the bottom of the conference for much of that time, but they've still managed to give the Cardinal some tough games -- 27-23 in 2012, 15-14 in 2017, and 31-28 in 2019. It doesn't seem like it's ever been easy.

Expect another tough game on Saturday night. While the Cardinal has been struggling over the past couple seasons, head coach Jonathan Smith has been building something in Corvallis. After just two wins in his first season, the Beavers won five games last year, and although they've got just two wins in the this fractured season, one of those victories is over Oregon, only the second in the last thirteen tries against their rivals from Eugene. From the outside looking in, this seems like a program that's coming.

Blogging with the Enemy: Oregon State Beavers

Well, here we are. After losing three of the first four games of the season for the first time in more than a decade, the Cardinal arrives in Corvallis today at a crossroads. This game can't make the season, but it can certainly break it. A win will mean more than just something positive to break up a long stretch of negativity, it will also give the Cardinal some hope. A loss, on the other hand, which would be David Shaw's first to Oregon State, would immediately cast the season in a different light a make a bowl game close to impossible.

Normally, it might seem like the trip north is coming at a perfect time. Oregon State has struggled for the past few seasons, so perhaps the hapless Beavers will offer up the easy win that this program so desperately needs. There are more than a few problems with this line of thinking, however. Most obviously, we haven't seen a lot from the Stanford offense that would make us believe that there are any easy wins in the near future. Also, word came this morning that quarterback K.J. Costello, who didn't look right after banging his throwing hand on an opposing helmet early in last week's game, won't be playing this Saturday. Davis Mills will start in his place. For a team that needs to find offensive consistency, switching quarterbacks each week is less than ideal. The hope is that Mills, a clearly talented player, has benefited from a taking most of the reps in practice this week and will play well.

We also got word that senior left guard Devery Hamilton, who appeared to have been injured on the (meaningless) last play of the game last week, won't play either. In this fifth game of the season, the Cardinal will be starting its fifth different combination along the offensive line. Again, less than ideal.

Beyond all of this, there's the reality that the Cardinal has had some issues in Corvallis in the past, even when things were brighter. In 2013 the eventual conference champion Cardinal struggled in an ugly 20-12 win over the Beavers, and two years ago Stanford pulled out a miraculous 15-14 victory that should never have happened. Reser Stadium isn't exactly a house of horrors for the Cardinal, but it's not like the Rose Bowl, either.

With all this in mind, I'm sure this game will be close -- and ugly -- throughout. Given the gravity of their situation, however, I believe the Cardinal players will come together. The defense will continue the improvement we saw last week, and the offense will do just enough to come away with a 20-13 win.

Stanford 48, Oregon State 17

It was nice, for a change, to have a relaxing win. It was nice to watch Bryce Love look healthy for the first time in weeks. It was nice to see the offense look as unstoppable as we had hoped it would be this season. In short, it was nice to see Stanford football again.

After an identity crisis that lasted for almost two-thirds of the season, the Stanford offense finally seems to have accepted what many have known -- it isn't a bad thing to pass in order to set up the run. Ever since turning the game plan upside down against Washington State two weeks ago, David Shaw has been more comfortable letting quarterback K.J. Costello take full advantage of the weapons at his disposal, and so it was on Saturday night against Oregon State, the weakest team in the Pac-12.

Blogging with the Enemy: Oregon State Beavers

With losses in four of the last five games, things are looking more dire for the Cardinal than in recent years. This is a program which has achieved a consistent level of success that can't be matched by too many schools, regardless of what the naysayers might naysay about it. But if you cite three Rose Bowl appearances as evidence of this success, you must also admit that the bar has been raised. A win on Saturday night will give the Cardinal six wins and clinch bowl eligibility, but that can't really be the goal anymore, can it?

In the old days, Oregon State would be a guaranteed victory, but things are looking up in Corvallis. The Beavers are 2-7 and have surrendered a troubling 44.6 points per game, which ranks 128 out of 130 teams, but they followed an epic comeback win over Colorado (after trailing 31-3 in the third quarter they rallied for a 41-34 overtime victory), with a strong showing in a 38-21 loss to USC. Tailback Jermar Jefferson has already gone over a thousand yards, and even though almost half of his yards came in two huge games against Southern Utah and Arizona State, he's still a cause for serious concern for the Cardinal defense. Containing him will be critical if Stanford hopes to get this win. Even considering all that, ESPN's Football Power Index predictor still gives Stanford a 96.4% of victory. I'm also feeling pretty good about things, and I'm confidently predicting a 31-21 Stanford win.

For a deeper look at Oregon State,  I reached out to one of my oldest blogging colleagues, a mysterious soul known only by his equally mysterious alias, angry. His answers to my questions are below, and you can click over to angrybeavs.com to see my answers to his questions about the Cardinal. Enjoy.

Stanford 15, Oregon State 14

If you watched every minute of Stanford's 15-14 non-loss against Oregon State, you saw a comet singe the edge of Earth's atmosphere, a duckling waddle across a freeway without being touched, a mine field flawlessly navigated by an old man with a white cane. The Cardinal avoided sure disaster on that Thursday night and won a game it had absolutely no business winning.

How did it all happen? To begin with, there was no Bryce Love. The best college running back in America had injured his ankle during the third quarter of the win over Oregon, but ten days later he wasn't yet ready to play. The decision was easy to understand. Even though the porous Oregon State defense would have given up 200 yards or more, further bolstering Love's burgeoning Heisman campaign, there was no need to play him if he wasn't one hundred percent. The Beavers, after all, were winless in conference play. Most figured that the Cardinal would show up in Corvallis on Thursday night, insert Cameron Scarlett into Love's spot in the backfield, roll up forty or fifty points, and head back home. It didn't quite go that way.

Blogging with the Enemy: Oregon State Beavers

The Oregon State Beavers have struggled through much of the season. After a 35-32 win over Portland State in Week 2, they've dropped five straight games and are currently 0-4 in conference and 1-6 overall. The record, however, probably isn't the worst of it. Gary Andersen, who surprised most observers when he left Wisconsin after two successful years (19-7) and headed to Corvalis, left the program earlier this month. His 4-8 season in 2016 seemed promising, but this season's rocky start led to his departure after just six games. The circumstances surrounding that decision are still a bit murky, but interim head coach Cory Hall has been tasked with salvaging the season and, possibly, rebuilding the program in the future.

With only a few hours until kickoff, we should probably just cut straight to the chase. Here's a deep look at the Oregon State program, courtesy of the ever enigmatic angry, who runs one of the most active fan message boards in the Pac-12, angrybeavs.com. (You can also read my answers to his questions over on his site.)