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Is This Rock Bottom?

The First Rock Bottom

We know the idea of "rock bottom." It is the place from which nothing can get worse, and, ideally, the beginning of a return to normalcy. Perhaps a gambler spends away his child's college fund, or a family going through difficult times begins sleeping in their car.

Personal tragedies like those examples and the status of a football program are two very different subjects, but there is one thing that both have in common. We never really know where rock bottom is until we've gained enough perspective to look back from a higher perch. The gambler, for example, no doubt had several dark moments earlier on that he might've hoped were his bottom, and so it is with Stanford football.

As the Cardinal closed out the 2021 season with seven straight defeats, the 52-7 loss to Utah seemed like rock bottom, but it could also be argued that the 41-11 loss to Cal two games later was even worse. Surely the program could sink no lower. As we sat there licking our wounds after Big Game and then sat there still as the team lost to Notre Dame a week later, it was difficult to imagine things getting any worse.

But then this year began and things did just that. The 1-3 start with consecutive losses to USC, Washington, and Oregon was bad, but the devastating and wholly unexpected loss to Oregon State made things even worse. It certainly felt like the bottomest rock bottom we'd seen, and when the Cardinal rebounded with a rejuvenating upset victory over Notre Dame in South Bend and then another (less impressive) win over Arizona State it felt like things were better. We looked back at those four straight losses and knew the worst was behind us. Right?

Blogging with the Enemy: Washington State Cougars

If I had told you back in August that three different players would start at quarterback for the Cardinal this season and that none of those three would start as many as three consecutive games, you might've known what was coming. If I had told you that nine different players would start on the offensive line, and that not until games seven, eight, and nine would we see the same quintet start three consecutive games, you might've known what was coming.

Stanford has suffered through a catastrophic string of injuries that began in Week 1 with a season-ending injury to left tackle Walker Little and the first of three different injuries that quarterback K.J. Costello would suffer, and extended through this week with Costello expected to be out again, along with cornerback Paulsen Adebo, safety Malik Antoine, and tight end Tucker Fisk. 

All of this led to last week's disheartening loss to Colorado. Facing a team that had lost five straight and yielded more than 30 points in every game this season, the Cardinal could manage only 13 points, putting the postseason at risk. In a season in which the team seemed to hit rock bottom each time the calendar changed, last week's loss was a new low, and not just because of that game's result. The loss to Colorado raised the potential of a death spiral, with the Cardinal possibly losing to Washington State on Saturday, losing the Axe the following week, and closing with a defeat at the hands of the Fighting Irish.

Blogging with the Enemy: Washington State Cougars

Sometimes it seems like the schedule is written by a screenwriter with a flair for the dramatic. Ten days after the Cardinal escaped Tempe with a road win that satisfied some in the fan base but mortified others due to David Shaw's conservative tendencies (see my earlier piece for a deeper dive into this), the Cardinal heads into a matchup with Bizarro Shaw, Mike Leach. In his six-plus years at Washington State, Leach has compiled a 44-39 record while dancing on the edge of razor blade with an offensive philosophy that could not possibly be more different than Shaw's. There have been prolific offenses and conference records set under his watch, but there have also been examples of defeats snatched from the jaws of certain victory. If Shaw is the tortoise, Leach is the hare, and both will share the same fable on Saturday evening.

The Cougars, of course, are coming off possibly their greatest win under Leach, a decisive victory over Oregon, a game so big that the College Game Day crew made the pilgrimage to the Paloose and the resulting crush of fans was enough that the city of Pullman actually declared a state of emergency to help deal with the unprecedented situation. The result, of course, was predictable. Washington State rode that emotional wave to a thoroughly dominant first half, then hung on for the win.

There's an obvious danger that the Cougs could arrive in Palo Alto a touch flat, but the magnitude of this game will probably help them stay focused. Stanford and Washington State are essentially tied with Washington atop the Pac-12 North with one loss each, and the winner of this game will take the inside lane in the race for the conference championship game. I assure you that Leach and his Cougars are no longer thinking of Oregon; their focus will rightly be on the Cardinal.

Blogging with the Enemy: Washington State Cougars

In the old days, Washington State was a team that posed no real threat to the Cardinal. There were some narrow wins -- and even a miraculous one in 2015 -- but David Shaw never lost to the Cougars. Until last year. Last year's 42-16 drubbing, which came a week after an even worse defeat at the hands of the other Washington school, was a low point in Stanford's season and a moment which caused many to question the direction of the program.

The truth is, that game was more about Washington State than it was about Stanford. Head coach Mike Leach has forged a team in his own identity and the result is a high-powered offense and an increasingly stingy defense. The team announced its arrival on the national stage with a statement win at home over then-fifth-ranked USC, then followed that up with an equally impressive 33-10 trouncing of Oregon. At 6-0, the Cougars seemed like not just a team on the rise, but a team deserving of inclusion in the national championship conversation.

What happened next was almost unthinkable -- unless you've been following Washington State football for the past two decades. They Coug'd it. They travelled to Berkeley to play the lowly Bears (yes, they're lowly; don't let anyone tell you any different) and were absolutely mauled, 37-3. Two weeks later they lost to Arizona by three touchdowns.

So who are the real Cougars? The team that controlled USC and dominated Oregon? Or the group that couldn't handle road trips to Berkeley and Tucson? In those two troubling losses, the deciding factor was quarterback play. Against Cal, Luke Falk (arguably the greatest quarterback in Washington State history) threw five interceptions as the offense produced only a single field goal. Two weeks later against Arizona, Falk was benched midway through the game in favor of sophomore backup Tyler Hilinski. Although Hilinski filled up the stat sheet with 509 yards passing, he threw four interceptions.

While we might not know which quarterback will be under center (Falk will start), we do know this -- the Cougars will come out firing, and the loss of starting cornerback Alijah Holder could not have come at a worse time. (You might remember that both Holder and Quenton Meeks were out for last year's game.)

But there is good news on the other side of the ball for the Cardinal. K.J. Costello will start at quarterback, and while Costello hasn't been terribly impressive when inserted for brief stints, he's been excellent as a starter, and the offense has been more nuanced and consistent. Oh, and then there's this, announced just this afternoon. Bryce Love -- remember him? -- will play. That's really all you need to know. While some have expressed concerns about his ankle and whether or not he's actually ready, I'd counter with this. There are many mysteries surrounding player personnel decisions made by the Stanford brain trust, but there is one thing I know for sure: they will never push a player back from injury before he's ready. If Love is playing on Saturday afternoon, it's because he's ready.

With all of that in mind, I think Stanford wins this game in tough, grind-it-out fashion. Love will rumble for 170 yards, Costello will play efficiently, and the Cardinal defense will help the team gut out another important conference road win. Stanford 27, Washington State 23.

For another angle, I contacted my old friend Coug-a-Sutra. Cougars are the most adaptable of the big cats, so it's no surprise that even two thousand miles from the Paloose, Sutra is still thriving in the Deep South. You should check out his thoughtful open letter to the Washington State senior class,  and below you'll find his answers to my questions about the Cougs. (Full disclosure: he answered these 48 hours before the announcements about Costello and Love.) Enjoy...

Blogging with the Enemy: Washington State Cougars

It was impossible to watch last weekend's crushing loss without wondering about what the future might hold for the Stanford Cardinal. Over the past two games the offense has managed just two touchdowns, and were it not for a miracle finish in the Rose Bowl against UCLA, the Cardinal could easily be 2-2.

How bad has the offense been? Ryan Burns ranks tenth in the Pac-12 in passer rating, twelfth in passing yards (two different Colorado quarterbacks have thrown for more yards than Burns's 546), and eleventh in passing touchdowns, and only two quarterbacks have been sacked more than he has. (Cal's Davis Webb is one of them, with twelve sacks to Burns's ten, but he's dropped back 267 times, compared to Burns's 89.)

Stanford fans, how concerned are you about the Stanford offense?

— Go Mighty Card (@GoMightyCard) October 3, 2016

But the competition has been stiff. Heading into the season, facing an opening stretch of Kansas State, USC, UCLA, and Washington, a 3-1 start for the Cardinal would've been more than acceptable. That's exactly where Stanford sits now, and things are about to get better. Much better.

Stanford 30, Washington State 28

When I'm watching Stanford play, I'm just like any fan, except for one thing. Throughout the game there's a small corner of my brain that's always working on the recap. As a game winds through its peaks and valleys, the mood in that corner changes along with the fortunes of the Cardinal, and possible ledes and through-lines materialize and are discarded as needed. Unlike any game in the five-year history of this site, Saturday night's nail-biter between Stanford and Washington State created more mental rewrites than I could ever have imagined.

Blogging with the Enemy: Washington State Cougars

Much has been made of Stanford's winning streak against UCLA, but it should be noted that the Cardinal has a longer streak, if measured in years, against Washington State. Stanford has topped the Cougars seven times in a row, and only once during that time has the margin of victory been as small as seven points. Most years it's been a blowout with scores like 58-0, 44-14, and 55-17.

To be fair, the Cougs have been in disarray for much of the past seven years, posting a cumulative 21-65 record and reaching just one bowl game, the 2013 New Mexico Bowl which they lost in devastating fashion. The arrival of head coach Mike Leach in 2012 brought new optimism to the program, but it's only this year that that optimism has translated to consistency on the football field.

The Cougs suffered a disappointing early loss to FCS Portland State, but they've bounced back nicely and put together a 5-2 record that has them controlling their own destiny for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game. They'll obviously need to beat Stanford on Saturday night to keep that hope alive, and they'll look to do that with one of the most prolific passing attacks you'll ever see. To say that quarterback Luke Falk is filling up the stat sheet would be a massive understatement. In his first four Pac-12 games, Falk is averaging 453 yards passing on 58 attempts. He was 50 for 74 with 505 yards and five touchdowns in an overtime win over Oregon, and two weeks ago he topped that with 514 yards in a win over Arizona.

Before those numbers make your head explode, take a look at the numbers that will actually decide this game. The Washington State defense  has been more like an end zone welcoming party than anything else. They currently rank 97th in the nation in rush defense, allowing 199 yards per game, but in recent weeks they've been even worse than that, yielding an average of 268 yards to Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona. They've also allowed 31 points per game, good for 89th in the nation, yielding 34, 38, 31, and 42 points in conference play.

The Stanford game plan will obviously be to run early and often, giving the Cougars heavy doses of Christian McCaffrey, Bryce Love, and Remound Wright in order to keep the hands on the clock spinning and keep Luke Falk on the sidelines. Time of possession and total rushing yards will be the key numbers to watch, and Stanford will dominate both categories. Expect the Cardinal to rush for over 300 yards (with 200+ for McCaffrey) and keep the ball for over forty minutes. Stanford 41, Washington State 17.

For another perspective, however, I reached out to the WSU Football Blog and they dispatched a mysterious man named Longball to answer all my questions about the Cougs. (You can read my answers to their questions about the Cardinal over there as well.) Read on...

Stanford 34, Washington State 17

The Washington State defense was supposed to be just what the doctor ordered to cure what ailed the Stanford offense, and that proved to be the case almost immediately.

Blogging With the Enemy: Washington State Cougars

The numbers just don't make any sense. Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday is challenging the laws of physics, altering the space-time continuum, and bravely going where no Pac-12 quarterback has gone before.

Washington State head coach Mike Leach employs an Air Raid system that sees his teams throwing the ball roughly 75% of the time, and Halliday is reaping the benefits and rewriting the record books. Against Cal last week -- albeit it in a heartbreaking 60-59 loss -- Halliday threw for an NCAA-record 734 yards on 49 of 70 passing with 6 touchdowns. Look at that number again -- SEVEN HUNDRED AND THIRTY-FOUR yards. (For a little perspective, Kevin Hogan passed for 552 yards in his last three games combined.)

The 2015 Schedule

With no game to look forward to this Saturday, now seems like the perfect time to look at the Cardinal's 2015 schedule, released this week by the Pac-12. Far too many things will happen between now and next fall to predict outcomes of any of the games, but let's take a game-by-game trip through the schedule anyway, just for fun. Oh, and keep this in mind as we go -- the schedule sets up perfectly for a run to the playoffs.